XRP rose as high as $1.87 as stock supply fell to its lowest level since 2018, reinforcing a restrictive float narrative even as the price remains stuck below the heavy $1.88 to $2 resistance band that has repeatedly capped rebounds.
News background
Exchange balances are once again treated as a key signal. The supply held on trading venues has fallen to about 1.6 billion XRP, down about 57% since October, suggesting that more tokens are moving into long-term storage or custody rather than ready to be sold.
That reduction comes during a broader phase of selective positioning among major companies: institutions have increasingly relied on structured and regulated lanes to gain exposure, while spot markets remain unstable, leaving tokens like XRP trading with a supportive long-term supply but fragile short-term momentum.
For XRP specifically, falling exchange inventory is important because it can amplify moves when demand increases, but it doesn’t guarantee a rally if sellers appear at known technical levels (and $2 has been that level).
Technical analysis
XRP rose approximately 1.7%, from $1.84 to $1.87, posting higher lows during the session and maintaining a relatively contained range of $0.05 (around 2.5% intraday volatility). Participation improved at the right time: volume expanded during the bullish momentum (around 32 million, about 50% above average), a sign that this was not simply an increase due to tight liquidity.
But the tape still reads like a controlled recovery within a broader ceiling. XRP slowed down repeatedly as it approached the $1.88 area, a level that also aligns with a broader resistance zone ahead of the $2.00 psychological level. That’s important because recent attempts to recapture $2 have quickly failed, turning the area into a supply zone where sellers feel comfortable riding the rallies.
Momentum indicators are mixed. Some oscillators show bullish divergence (momentum improves even when price has not completely broken out), but the market still needs a follow-through above resistance to validate it. On the lower side, the structure looks constructive as long as
Price Action Summary
- XRP advanced from $1.84 to $1.87, posting a steady series of higher lows
- Volume expanded during the bullish move, peaking at around 32 million, about 50% above average.
- The price stalled near the $1.88 resistance, keeping the broader range of $1.77 to $2.00 intact.
- Late session action consolidated around $1,873, indicating a turning point rather than a breakout.
What traders should know
The story is a tug of war between a shortage of available supply and a well-defined ceiling of resistance.
Key levels are clear:
- Bullish Case: Sustained momentum above $1.88 opens the door for a run towards $1.95, with $2.00 as a breakout trigger. A clean recovery to $2 would likely attract buyers and force sellers who have been defending that area to reposition.
- Bearish case: If the base is not maintained between $1.82 and $1.83, the focus returns to $1.77, the next pocket of significant demand. If that breaks, the risk extends to the next broader support region (where buyers historically reappear), but the near-term battleground is clearly $1.77 versus $1.88.
For now, the reduction in foreign exchange supply keeps the long-term setup constructive, but the market still needs a decisive victory above $1.88-$2 before the bullish narrative can take control of the tape.
