Since the beginning of 2023, Bitcoin (BTC) has marked a classic staircase bull career, characterized by incremental price increases followed by consolidation periods that prepared the scenario for the next highest movement.
The consolidation of current prices of the cryptocurrency between $ 90,000 and $ 100,000 is the third of the largest bull from $ 20,000. The consensus is that it will end in a bull break, as those of mid -2024 and 2023 did.
However, the next three developments suggest otherwise.
Tightening USD liquidity
If there is something that any kind of assets, not only cryptography, it usually does not like, is the hardening of fiduciary liquidity, particularly the global reserve currency, the US dollar (USD). For BTC Bulls’s dismay, the liquidity of the dollar is hardening due to several factors, such as Arthur Hayes, MAELSTOM Investment Director, noted in X.
In particular, USD’s cash balance held in the General Treasury account (TGA), the current government account of the United States in the Fed, has increased from $ 623 billion to $ 800 billion in four weeks, according to The macromicro data source.
After the United States reached its self -imposed debt limit of $ 36 billion last month, the markets expected the treasure markets That is what the treasure did during the previous issuance of the debt roof of the beginning of 2023, which increases the increase in risks in capital and cryptography markets.
“We are looking for a scenario in which key liquidity sources are drying or are more closely controlled. This could lead to a deceleration in economic activity, higher costs of indebtedness and potentially a more challenging environment for risk assets, including Cryptography, “Anddydy Lian, a thought leader and intergovernmental blockchain expert, he said in X.
Trump’s administration to “evaluate” the BTC strategic reserve
Since President Donald Trump assumed the position on January 20, he has actively been in several campaign promises related to tariffs, illegal migrants and international issues.
But, there is a remarkable exception: the establishment of a strategic BTC reserve. It was a significant catalyst behind the BTC increase of $ 70,000 to more than $ 100,000.
The Trump administration seems to be more cautious, opting to “evaluate” the viability of creating this reserve. It is a disappointing change for cryptographic investors that anticipate rapid action in this initiative, similar to Trump’s rapid responses on other issues.
“Wait, Trump said he would make a reservation of $ BTC, he would not promise” evaluate it. “Evaluate/study is what Washington does when they don’t want to do something,” said Jim Bianco, president and Macro strategist of Bianco Research, LLC.
BTC fell from more than $ 100,000 to $ 96,000 during trade during the night after Trump’s crypto, Zzar, told CNBC that an article on the higher agenda for its new working group is evaluating the viability of a reserve of Bitcoins.
Reappearance of a 2021 coverage pattern
Finally, those who look at technical graphics to measure the next movement may want to remove the 14 -week relative force index (RSI) on their screens.
This is because the oscillator has recently diverged bassist in a movement that marked the top 2021. A divergence Bearish RSI contradicts the highest prices, which indicates a slowdown in the bullish impulse.
The RSI has produced a lower maximum in relation to its high and divergent December of the rising trend of the continuous price. That is similar to pattern 2021.
The negative configuration would be invalked if the RSI crosses above the line of trend that represents, which represents divergence, indicating a renewed bullish impulse.
