8 reasons why Fed may not want to reduce rates in September



The cryptocurrencies and related actions extended the losses on Tuesday when the merchants prepared for the launch of the FOMC de la Fed minutes on Wednesday and Jackson Hole’s speech by Jerome Powell de Fed, Jerome Powell, Friday.

Bitcoin fell 3.2% in the last 24 hours to fall below $ 114,000, while Ether fell 5.3% to less than $ 4,200. XRP fell 6.2%, Cardano Ada slipped 8%and the largest cryptographic market decreased by 3.2%.

Crypto -related companies, such as Bitcoin miners, cryptographic exchanges and digital assets treasury companies, suffered even greater losses, with Mara, Coin and Mstr closing today’s regular session at 5.7%, 5.8%and 7.4%, respectively.

On the contrary, in general, US actions suffered less: the Dow finished flat, the S&P 500 fell 0.59%and the Nasdaq slid around 1.5%. The disparity underlines how digital assets, which depend largely on cheap liquidity, are more exposed to changes in rates expectations than traditional actions.

Investors now face a fundamental calendar.

On August 20 at 2 PM ET, the Fed will release minutes of the FOMC meeting held from July 29 to 30, offering information on rates and inflation debates of policy formulators. From August 21 to 23, the central bankers meet for Jackson Hole’s symposium, with the Powell key note scheduled for August 22 at 10 am et. Together, Powell’s minutes and speech could define market expectations for the September policy meeting.

The delayed bite of tariffs

Many companies have absorbed tariff costs to protect market share, but analysts warn that they cannot do it indefinitely. Once transmitted to consumers, these costs could boost prices and force the Fed to wait before cutting.

Sick -up inflation data

Despite a bit of cooling, inflation meters remain high. The producer’s price index, a key wholesale measure, has been hotter than the prognosis, which suggests persistent pressures that complicate any case for aggressive flexibility.

Corporate limits

American executives have indicated that they will eventually be forced to change the costs of downstream rate. If that happens, consumer inflation could accelerate in the coming months, make a September cut look prematurely.

Mixed economic signals

The economy of the United States shows the growth of employment and resistant consumer demand. This unequal image could encourage Powell to defend patience until Fed has clearer evidence that growth can resist costs driven by the rate.

Political uncertainty

Tariffs intersect with fiscal and commercial policies in unpredictable ways. This complexity increases the risk of false steps, which is more likely to be more likely an aggressive tone in Jackson Hole.

History lessons

The 2018-2019 tariff shocks produced delayed but significant inflation, which caused Fed caution. Powell can resort to that precedent to justify retaining this time.

Progress indicators

The next launch of the new economic data, including Thursday’s release from the preliminary data of August on the manufacturing and services activity, could show the construction of cost pressures related to the rate. Powell could point out this as another reason for prudence.

Internal divisions

The minutes of the July FOMC meeting can reveal a division within the Fed. With the hawks focused on inflation and pigeons that emphasize jobs, Powell can emphasize the need for consensus, which often favors the wait.

For cryptography, bets are clear. The highest feature films stop the liquidity that feeds the speculative manifestations, increase financing costs for miners and weigh the exchange activity. If Powell indicates caution, the sale of tokens and the actions related to cryptography could be deepened. However, a surprise of a pedey could offer the spark for a rebound.



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