Bitcoin Key
The indicators are pointing out a potential change to a bear market regime while merchants expect the comments of the president of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, in the Jackson Hole symposium.
The first is the 180 -day call bias derived from the options that are negotiated in Deribit, the greatest exchange of cryptography options by volume and open interest.
When writing, the 180 -day bias was negative 0.42, the lowest since June 2023, according to the Amber Data Source. A negative call bias suggests that merchants have a price at a greater demand for sale options (They offer protection against pricing descents) In relation to purchase options. Data can be interpreted as a caution of the market on the rise or bearish feeling in the medium term.
“BTC longest shoots in Put Premium could be a sign of regime change,” said Imran Lakha, founder of Insights options, in X.
The negative reading is presented as a regime change, since it follows two years of consistently positive values, which reflects a bias towards the bullish purchase options.
More importantly, BTC has only retired in approximately 8% of its maximum records exceeding $ 124,000, which were reached a week ago. However, the long -term feeling has turned bassist.
According to Lakha, the price setback has activated the demand for sale options.
“BTC and ETH SESCHS are pulling towards Put Premium, since the markets correct. BTC does not show a call premium again until March 2026. The lowest movement of August/September puts around the strike of $ 110,000. The calls and the calls of calls are being sold as the lengths are reduced in the speech of Powell Jackson Hole on Friday,” said Lakha In a blog.
The president of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, is scheduled to speak in the annual Jackson Hole symposium of the Central Bank on Friday. Most merchants expect Powell to indicate rates cuts from September and if it gives what is expected, the market can correct, according to Nansen’s research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard.
“At this stage, the market expects cuts, so much of that already has a price. If Powell offers exactly what is anticipated, the cryptography could see a slightly bassist action sideways, a classic dynamic of” selling the news. “On the contrary, if the fed of a deeper or faster cut cycle than expected, that could cause a fresh risk and prepare the scenario of the next etc.
Share merchants pursue
The demand for downward protection in BTC is consistent with the activity on Wall Street, where merchants have been preparing for a massive sale in the main technological actions.
“The merchants are buying ‘Disaster’ puts in the ETF of Investco QQQ Trust Series 1, which tracks the Nasdaq 100 index,” Jacobson Jacobson, head of strategy derived in 22V Research Group, told Bloomberg.
Guppy multiple mobile average indicator
The second indicator that points to a bearish change in the regime is Guppy’s multiple mobile average (GMMA) indicator.
Developed by Australian merchant Daryl Guppy, the indicator is used to identify reversions and evaluate the strength of the trend by analyzing the bands formed by short and long -term mobile averages. A bullish cross is produced when the green band that represents mobile averages in the short term crosses on the red band of long -term mobile averages, indicating that the ascending impulse is accumulating rhythm.
The BTC price has crossed under Guppy mobile average bands, a sign that bulls are losing control and long -term feeling can be lowering. This is often considered a warning signal that the downward impulse is about to strengthen, paving the way for a pronounced price weakness.
Other indicators, such as the MACD histogram, also suggest a strengthening of the downward impulse.
Read more: Bitcoin looms to $ 113k; Solana and Dogecoin Leadership ahead of Jackson Hole’s speech
