August put a small dent in what remains a long -term upward trend for digital assets. Bitcoin fell around 6.5%, its first monthly decrease since March, after briefly touching a new historical maximum of $ 125,000 in the middle of the month. Ether, on the contrary, extended his strong career, winning almost 19% and raising his participation in the general market capitalization to approximately 13%. This Bitcoin to Ether rotation was also visible in the ETFs: Bitcoin’s funds saw strange net outings, which suggests some profits after this year’s extraordinary rally, while ETFs of ether attracted strong tickets that pushed the assets under the administration at the registered levels. As a result, Bitcoin’s domain fell to its lowest point since January, leaving the general market capitalization of digital assets in the month.
Despite this lateral performance, market activity remained high. Punctual trade volumes maintained above its average twelve months, unusual for the typically calm summer season, and derivative markets were equally animated. The open interest in the Bitcoin and Ether options reached new maximums, and August established a record of BTC options that negotiate volumes at $ 145 billion. Implicit volatility remained relatively subjected, but marked the end of the month, insinuating that the options market may be underestimating the risk.
While Bitcoin stopped, gold was in a tear. A perfect storm of expectations of fall rates, persistent central inflation, extensive commercial deficits, a weaker dollar, geopolitical risks and a growing political uncertainty boasted the yellow metal to the high record high records. The dismissal of the governor of the Fed, Lisa Cook by the Trump administration, caused concerns about the long -term independence of the Federal Reserve. Treasury yields barely moved, but gold, as a traditional coverage against inflation and systemic risk, jumped sharply. Bitcoin, however, quoted more under the day the news occurred.
This raises the perennial question of Si Bitcoin really deserves the “digital gold” label. His scarcity and libertarian origins support the analogy, but the data tells a more nuanced story. The short -term correlations between Bitcoin and Gold have been inconsistent, oscillating around 12% and 16% in 30 and 90 days windows. About longer horizons (180d)The average correlation is slightly higher, but still falls. In other words, the two assets have not moved reliably. However, since 2024, the average correlation of 180 days has shown a significant increase of around 60%. The effect is also visible on shorter horizons, although less pronounced. A reasonable interpretation is that the ‘digital gold’ narrative is beginning to obtain a firmer position with investors as the asset class matures.
It is also worth remembering that Gold himself has an imperfect history as a hedge of macro and inflation. It does not track consumer prices month to month, although during the decades it has preserved the purchasing power better than most assets. Research also shows that gold can serve as a safe refuge during extreme equity stress episodes, but not always, as illustrated by its mixed relationship with Vix.
For Bitcoin, the narrative is still in flow. Some investors see it as a technological work; Others see it as an emerging macro hedge. We believe that the latter will be more durable over time. Unlike other blockchains, Bitcoin’s limited scalability, rigid governance and lack of integrity means that it is unlikely to become a multiple application platform. Other protocols are much more suitable for that role. On the other hand, Bitcoin’s long -term value proposal is based on his shortage and neutrality, characteristics that echo Gold’s monetary role.
Of course, such stories have been solidified for some time. Gold required that millennia will be widely accepted as a value reserve. Bitcoin, compared, is only sixteen, but has already achieved notable levels of recognition and adoption. The analogy of “digital gold” may not be completely backed by the data today, but it is too early to rule it out. In any case, history suggests that history is still being written.
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