Are the ETF dominating the Fed? Net registration entries say maybe



The record flows in the funds quoted in the stock market may be remodeling the markets so that even the Federal Reserve cannot control.

The new data show that ETFs that are quoted in the United States have become a dominant force in capital markets. According to a press release from Etfgi Friday, an independent consulting, the assets invested in ETF from the USA. Uu. They reached a record of $ 12.19 billion at the end of August, compared to $ 10.35 billion at the close of 2024. Bloomberg, which highlighted the increase on Friday, said the flows are challenging the traditional influence of the Federal Reserve.

Investors invested $ 120.65 billion in ETF only during August, raising the tickets of the year to date to $ 799 billion, the highest recorded. In comparison, the previous record of the full year was $ 643 billion in 2024.

Growth is concentrated among the largest suppliers. Ishares leads with $ 3.64 billion in assets, closely followed by Vanguard with $ 3.52 billion and the Spdr family of State Street at $ 1.68 billion.

Together, these three companies control almost three quarters of the US ETF market. UU. Etfs Equity attracted most of the August entries at $ 42 billion, while the fixed income funds added $ 32 billion and the ETFs of basic products of almost $ 5 billion.

ETF linked to cryptography are now a significant piece of the image.

Sosovalue’s data show that Bitcoin and Ether ETFs that are quoted in the United States administer more than $ 120 billion combined, led by Blackrock’s Ishares Bitcoin Trust Trust (Ibit) And the sage of Fidelity Bitcoin Trust (FBTC). Bitcoin ETFs only represent more than $ 100 billion, equal to approximately 4% of the market capitalization of $ 2.1 billion of Bitcoin. The ETFs of Ether add another $ 20 billion, despite their launch only earlier this year.

The increase underlines how the ETFs, traditional and cryptographic, have become the vehicle chosen for investors of all sizes. For many, the flows are automatic.

In the United States, much of the cash comes from retirement accounts known as 401(K)S, where workers leave aside part of each payment check.

A growing part of that money enters “funds of target date”. These funds automatically change investments, gradually moving from bond shares, as the savers approach the retirement age. Model wallets and robo accessories follow similar rules, automatically directing flows in ETF without investors making daily decisions.

Bloomberg described this as an “automatic pilot” effect: every two weeks, millions of contributions of workers are channeled in indices that buy the same baskets of shares, regardless of the valuations, the holders or the policy of the Fed. Analysts cited by Bloomberg say that this constant demand helps to explain why the capital rates of the USA They show signs of tension.

The trend raises questions about the influence of the Fed.

Traditionally, interest rate cuts or walks sent strong signals that undertake through basic actions, bonds and products. The lowest rates generally encourage risk taking, while the highest rates accumulated it. But with the ETFs that absorb hundreds of billions of dollars at an established schedule, markets can be less sensitive to the signs of the Central Bank.

That tension is especially clear this month. The Fed is expected to reduce the rates in a quarter quarter on September 17, the shares feel close to records and gold operations above $ 3,600 per ounce.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, lies around $ 116,000, not far from its historical maximum of $ 124,000 established in mid -August.

The ETF of actions, bonds and cryptographic have seen strong entries, which suggests that investors are positioning for easier money, but also reflecting a structural tide of passive assignments.

Supporters told Bloomberg that the increase in ETFs has reduced costs and expanded access to markets. But critics cited in the same report warn that the large scale of entries could amplify volatility if the channels are grouped into a recession, since the ETFs move entire baskets of values ​​at the same time.

As Bloomberg said, this “perpetual machine” of passive investment can be remodeling the markets so that even the Central Bank struggles to counteract.



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