A fallacious debate has resurfaced, advocating Damming Rivers. This is more for political consumption to divert public anger from the failure of governance in the recent unprecedented flood in the three main rivers of Punjab (Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej).
Our collective short memory, together with the hoarding of land for personal benefit by the powerful elite, weak regulation and collusion between the powerful political elite, bureaucracy and land developers, has allowed human settlements without control along the routes of natural rivers.
In addition, during the last six to seven decades, public infrastructure planning has greatly overlook historical water routes, aggravating the current disaster scale.
Similar factors caused the damage during the floods of 2010, 2022 and now again in 2025. Even the small lessons of the 2010 disaster could have avoided a lot, if not all, of the current damage. However, fifteen years later, those lessons have fallen into deaf ears and blind eyes. Instead of long-term planning, we continue to see AD-Hoc measures, false solutions, deficient forecasts and temporary actions.
Each disaster has followed the same pattern: then, a burst of discussion arises: as it did in Sindh after 2010. Studies are responsible, reports are produced and numerous deliberations are made, but long -term significant measures are never taken. Instead, a family choir emerges again, reviving the fun debate about the Damming rivers.
In the very interesting book ‘The Black Swan: the impact of the highly unlikely’, Nassim Nicholas Taleb argues that rare, unpredictable and high impact events, called black swans, shape history and daily life much more than regular, predictable events.
Humans are connected to underestimate the probability and consequences of these events due to cognitive biases, excessive dependence on models and the tendency to seek patterns in randomness.
The floods of 2010, 2022 and now 2025 are of real black swan events for Pakistan.
However, these events have not shaped our history. However, our persistent bias towards a single solution, Damming Rivers, prevents us from thinking beyond this narrow horizon. In the process, experts in water, policy engineers and formulators have almost forgotten two certainties: the rivers that will eventually return and the torrents of the hill will claim their paths. Floods and sudden floods of 2025 are a marked reminder that a black swan can attack even after a century of calm.
The black swan warns about prediction bias. In the last decade, many reports have predicted to Pakistan as a country of water shortage by dividing the average annual water by a rapid growth population. As the population increases, the number per person always falls. This ignores key factors, including seasonal variability, storage capacity, groundwater and management losses. It also ignores that the last years have been extraordinarily wet.
The high recent flows occurred in the Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej rivers. Its geography does not allow these rivers to be damn in the simple areas of Punjab; Therefore, this pronouncement is completely out of context.
These are some of my presentations for the way to follow:
This unprecedented situation requires solutions outside the long -term box; We cannot recycle the same arguments a decade and a half after the floods of 2010. Without a doubt, Pakistan needs to increase its water storage capacity to address the seasonal variability of the flows and maintain their agriculture. But large dams are not the only response, either for storage or flood control.
The experience of many places shows this repeatedly; With erratic rain driven by climate change, dam operations can even be more risky. The geography of Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej does not allow the dam of these rivers in the Punjab plains. Then, the dam debate is completely out of context. These are my proposals for the way to follow: one, allow rivers to flow along their historical and natural routes so that they can deliver sediments rich in nutrients and enrich the soil exhausted after decades of agriculture.
This will inject free fertilizer into the areas reached by water. We must not overvalue the rivers in excess as a silver bullet; It will not fix the invasion of the flood plain and the failure of urban drainage or the bursts of torrent of the hill. When possible, restore flood derivations through the channels, let the rivers spread safely without damaging settlements.
Two, start the survey and mapping of the existing human settlements in the flood plains of all the main rivers and along the routes of Torrente de los Colinas, even if they have been dry for a century. In the era of the satellite, this is not an important challenge. Prepare maps and classify areas in different areas using models based on historical flows of rivers from peak to bass, while incorporating the unprecedented ends of today and based on the climate.
Relocate people who fall within red areas. Strictly prohibit the new settlements in the flood plain areas.
Three, after the floods of 2010, the government of Sindh conducted a study to identify natural water routes; These were clearly identified and mapped, but invasions were not completely eliminated for political reasons.
Other provinces did not learn from this; Many settlements in Punjab were flooded this time. Now bold political decisions are needed to eliminate all invasions, once and for all, but systematically and fairly.
Four, where it is feasible, develop small dams and dikes for surface storage or as a temporary barrier to recharge groundwater, especially in Punjab, where many areas sit on fresh water aquifers. Although the energy necessary to pump groundwater is high, the growing solar energy capacity of Pakistan and other technological solutions can address this challenge.
Five, invest in better forecasts and an early warning. Regional cooperation and transparent data exchange are critical, especially in cross -border rivers. Build prognosis capacity in multiple locations along the different river basins and install modern equipment such as telemetry, rain/river indicators and meteorological radar) in barriers and key dams to monitor the flows in real time and spread timely and clear alerts.
Effective management of the Cross -Bridal River requires a renewed approach to regional policy. Disasters such as 2025 flood do not recognize national borders, which makes regional peace and cooperation essential.
Discharge of responsibility: The views expressed in this piece are that of writer and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of PakGazette.TV.
The writer is an environmental and human rights activist based in Islamabad.
Originally published in the news
