This is an analysis analysis of the Coendesk analyst and rented market technician Omkar Godbole.
As we approach the last quarter of 2025, the following key graphics provide valuable information to help cryptographic merchants to navigate the landscape of the evolutionary market.
Alcista seasonality
Seasonal tendencies suggest an upward quarter bundle perspective for both and The two main cryptocurrencies for market capitalization.
Since 2013, It has delivered an average yield of 85% in the last quarter, according to Coinglass data, which makes the fourth quarter historically the strongest period for bulls.
November stands out as the most optimistic month, with an average gain of 46%, followed by October, which generally sees an increase of 21%.
It also tends to work well in the last three months of the year, although its stronger historical yields have been in the first quarter from the beginning.
50 -week BTC SMA support
The price of Bitcoin has decreased by 5% this week, according to the technical bassist signals and seems to extend the losses at the end of August about $ 107,300. If the bulls do not defend that, the approach will change to the simple 200 -day mobile average to $ 104,200.
The decrease in continuous price, combined with Bitcoin’s historical pattern to reach a peak of approximately 16 to 18 months after an event in half, can scare the bulls.
However, such concerns can be premature as long as prices remain above the simple mobile average (SMA) of 50 weeks. This mobile average has constantly acted as a support level, marking the end of the corrective price setbacks during Toro’s current race that began at the beginning of 2023.
Operators, therefore, must closely observe the 50 -week SMA, which is currently placed around $ 98,900, as a key level for a broader market management.
XRP/BTC compression
XRP, often called “United States government currency” by companies such as Arca, has increased 32% this year. However, despite this strong manifestation, the cryptocurrency centered on payments remains confined within a prolonged lateral negotiation range against Bitcoin (XRP/BTC), which shows a limited relative force.
The XRP/BTC torque has been confined within a narrow negotiation range since the beginning of 2021, resulting in more than four years of low volatility compression.
The recent action of the price near the upper limit of this channel suggests that bulls are gradually gaining control. A rupture of such a prolonged consolidation could trigger a powerful XRP rally in relation to BTC, as the accumulated energy of this squeeze is released.
Now, let’s move on to the graphics that require caution.
Breakout in Defiance Daily Target 2x Short Mstr ETF (SMST)
The ETF Anti-Strategy (SMST) leveraged, which seeks to deliver daily investment results that are -200%, or less 2x, the daily percentage change in the price of Bitcoin-Holder Strategy (MSTR) shares, bullish signals is intermittent.
The price of the ETF rose to a maximum of five months of $ 35.65, forming what seems to be a reverse pattern of head and shoulders, characterized by a prominent channel (the head) flanked by two smaller and approximately equal channels (the shoulders).
This pattern often points out a possible bullish investment, which suggests that the ETF can be preparing for a significant movement up.
In other words, it is flashing a bearish signal for both BTC and for the strategy, which is the largest head of BTC who publicly listed with an 639,835 BTC coins.
Double dollar index fund
Last week, I discussed the resilience of reduction of postal fees of the dollar as a possible wind against risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Since then, the dollar index has gained ground, establishing a double fund in around 96.30. It is a sign that bulls have successfully established the path of lower resistance on the upper side.
A continuous movement beyond 100.26, the maximum of the provisional recovery between the twin funds around 96.30, would confirm the so -called double background rupture, opening the door to move to 104.00.
Be careful with the pattern’s failure below 96.00, since that could lead to greater risk taking in financial markets.
Nvda Topping?
Nvidia (NVDA), the world’s largest company for market value, and a vulgar for risk assets, continues to flirt with the upper end of the extension channel identified in June 2024 and November 2024 maximums reached in August 2024 and April 2025.
The rally has stagnated in the higher trend line since the end of July in a sign of bullish exhaustion. If it will decrease from here, it could indicate the beginning of a period of risk in global markets, including cryptocurrencies.
