I just finished what historically is the third week of the year of the largest cryptocurrency with a larger 5%drop. Week 38 effectively closes the third quarter, which has increased approximately 1%, as well as September, which has managed to stay stable.
While the figures are consistent with the historical reputation of the period as one of the weakest seasons of the year, some catalysts could have contributed to low performance.
On Friday, more than $ 17 billion in options expired, with the maximum price of pain, the exercise price in which the owners of options lose the largest amount of money and the options of options benefit more, at $ 110,000, which acted as a gravitational center for the spot price.
A key technical factor remains the cost of the short -term holder at $ 110,775, which reflects the average chain acquisition price for currencies that moved in the last six months.
Bitcoin tested this level in August, and in the Alcista markets, he usually advances to this line several times. This year, it broke significantly below that level only once: during the tantrum of rates in April, when it fell to only $ 74,500.
Upon moving away, it is important to evaluate if Bitcoin remains in a bullish trend characterized by higher and higher high ups and downs to have an idea of ​​whether the rally is sustainable.
The Caleb Franzen analyst highlights that Bitcoin has fallen below its 100 -day exponential mobile (EMA) mobile average, with the 200 -day EMA at $ 106,186. The previous significant minimum was around $ 107,252 on September 1, and so that the broader trend remains intact, Bitcoin must keep above that level.
Macro backdrop
The US economy grew at an annualized pace of 3.8% in the second quarter, well above the estimate of 3.3% and the stronger performance since the second quarter of 2023. Initial unemployment statements fell by 14,000 to 218,000, below expectations and marking the lowest level since mid -July. While the expenses data were aligned with market expectations. The US PCE PCE PCE Price Index. UU., The preferred measure of the Federal Underlying Inflation Reserve that excludes food and energy, increased 0.2% in August 2025 since the previous month.
The performance of the United States Treasury bonds to 10 years bounced the support of 4%, and now trades about 4.2%. The dollar index (DXY) continues to pass the long -term support closure in 98. Meanwhile, metals lead the action, with silver in about $ 45 by approaching a historical maximum at the levels seen for the last time in 1980 and 2011. Meanwhile, US actions, to the extent, are little less than their records.
Bitcoin remains the atypical value in more than 10% below its peak.
Actions exposed to Bitcoins
Bitcoin Treasury companies continue to face a severe multiple value compression (MNAV). The strategy (MSTR) is barely positive for the date. At one point, it fell below $ 300, a negative yield by 2025.
The relationship between the strategy and the Bitcoin Trust ETF of Blackrock Ishares (Ibit) is 4.8, the lowest since October 2024, which shows how much a lower performance of Bitcoin has had in the last 12 months.
Enterprise Mnav of strategy is currently 1.44 (from Friday). The business value here represents all the basic actions in circulation, total notional debt and total notional value of perpetual preferred actions except the company’s cash balance.
The positive side for MSTR is that three of the four perpetual preferred actions, Strk, Strc and Strf, have positive life returns, since executive president Michael Saylor seeks to buy more BTC through these vehicles.
An increasing problem for MSTR is the lack of volatility in Bitcoin. The implicit volatility of cryptocurrency, a measure of the market of future price fluctuations, has fallen below 40, the lowest in years.
This is important because Saylor has often framed Mstr as a volatility game in Bitcoin. As a comparison, MSTR’s implicit volatility is 68. Its annualized standard deviation of the yields of daily records during the past year was 89%, while in the last 30 days it has fallen to 49%.
For shares, greater volatility often attracts speculators, generates commercial opportunities and attracts the attention of investors, so the decrease is likely to act as a wind against.
Meanwhile, the fifth largest Bitcoin Treasury company, Metaplenet (3350), has 25,555 BTC and still has approximately $ 500 million left to deploy its international offer. Despite this, the price of its shares continues to fight in 517 yen ($ 3.45), more than 70% below its historical maximum.
The Metaplenet MNAV has fallen to 1.12, throughout 8.44 in June. Its market capitalization is now $ 3.94 billion compared to a Bitcoin NAV of $ 2.9 billion, with an average BTC acquisition cost of $ 106,065.
