Bitcoin closed September with a profit of 5.16%, its third best September registered since 2013, according to Coinglase data.
The action occurs when merchants direct their attention to October, which historically has been the strongest month of the asset.
Since 2013, Bitcoin has averaged 14.4% of profits in October, with an average yield of 10.8%. From 13 October in that period, 10 ended in green and only three closed lower. This history makes October the most statistically favorable month for the asset, with gains often grouping in the second half.
This seasonality is a distinctive seal of financial markets, and markets tend to retreat in early May before an increase in November. This is based on the belief that capital markets have a lower yield during the summer due to the lowest commercial volumes, reduced institutional activity and historical yield data.
Historically, US stock markets have demonstrated weaker performance from May to October than from November to April, which leads to the strategy to become a seasonal July for some investors.
Bitcoin also shows recurring seasonal patterns, often influenced by macro cycles, institutional flows and retail feeling. As such, past commercial patterns show the first week of October can be choppy or negative, before the strongest seizure takes over the rise later in the month. In several years, Bitcoin published two -digit overthensions after October 15, even when the early price action was silenced.
The backdrop this year is similar. Bitcoin’s mixed performance through 2025, including raids in spring and unequal summer trade, contrasts with the resistance of recent weeks, adding weight to the idea that the September force can be a precursor to the impulse at the end of the year.
Even so, seasonality offers probabilities, not certainties. Macro catalysts, from the inflation impressions of the United States to changes in risk appetite, have historically formed October manifestations.
But with the September performance classification near the top and the probabilities that favor the bulls in October, the merchants will closely observe to see if the history rhyme once more.
