By Francisco Rodrigues (All Times et unless indicated otherwise)
Cryptographic markets continue their increase this week after the weakest US labor data than expected and in the midst of a government closure that saw the market adopt the position that a federal reserve rate cut next month is almost a certainty.
Bitcoin rose an additional 2.15% in the last 24 -hour period to $ 118,700, while the broader market, measured by the Coindesk 20 index (CD20), increased 2.33% in the same period. The demonstration came despite uncertainty, or due to the growing uncertainty in traditional markets.
The spark came from an unexpected fall in the private payrolls of the United States. ADP data showed a 32,000 labor decrease in September, against forecasts for a 50,000 gain. With the closure of the government, stopping official work data, merchants are forced to rely on this failure to obtain information, which leads to higher tariff reduction bets.
Polymarket data now show that merchants weigh a 91% chance that the FED reduces rates at 25 bp in late this month, while in the CME Fedwatch tool, the probabilities that such rate cuts are 99%.
“The markets seem to have responded with relative stability in the first 24 hours after the closing of the United States government,” Philipp Zentner, CEO and founder of the LIFI protocol told Coindesk. “It is worth noting that during the last important closure in 2018-2019, which lasted 35 days, the markets remained largely resistant, and we can see similar dynamics this time.”
That stability, together with a misleading macroeconomic environment, is a good omen for risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.
Derivative markets also reflect this change, with an open interest that increases almost 4% to $ 216 billion according to Coinglase data. Similarly, SPOT cryptographic ETFs have seen more than $ 2.3 billion in net tickets since the beginning of the week, according to Sosovalue.
Even so, some warn about structural risks. “The strategies that depend on stock premiums to buy Bitcoin are reaching the limits,” said Justin Wang, co -founder of Zeus Network, Coendesk. “The institutional adoption of sustainable Bitcoin requires infrastructure that does not depend on the feeling of the market and the premiums of shares.”
As the closure crawls and the economic signals become more turbulent, investors seem to be turning to alternative assets such as gold and cryptography. Speaking to Coindesk, Xyo’s co -founder, Markus Levin, said the BTC price structure is “Showing a classic end of the Elliott’s wave within a growing wedge, a pattern that often indicates consolidation before a decisive movement. “
“Institutional flows and derivative activity will be fundamental to determine whether this configuration is resolved with new maximums or a deeper setback. In any case, we are entering one of the most dynamic months of Bitcoin, and market participants must be prepared for volatility,” he said.
Stay alert!
What to see
For a more complete list of events this week, see the “Week of Crypte Aseña” of Coindesk.
- Crypto
- Macro
- October 2, 8:30 am: initial claims of the United States (for the week that ended on September 27) Est. 223k, continuing (for the week that ended on September 20) Est. 1930k. The report has been delayed due to a closure of the federal government.
- Earnings (Estimates based on data data)
Token events
For a more complete list of events this week, see the “Cryptocurrency Week” of Coindesk.
- Government votes and calls
- ES DAO is voting to reimburse the ETH.limo team 109,818.82 USDC of the Treasury. These funds must cover legal fees to operate their public gateway. The vote ends on October 2.
- Dao arbitrum is voting to transfer 8,500 eth inactive to your treasure team to gain performance and support the ecosystem. The movement will generate ~ 204 eth annually. The vote ends on October 2.
- Gitcoin Dao is holding a revote to approve a reviewed correspondence of $ 1,175,000 and updated subsidies categories for its next round 24 of subsidies (GG24). The vote ends on October 2.
- You unlock
- October 2: Unlock 0.62% of its circulating supply for a value of $ 23.65 million.
- Lanza Token
- October 2: Doublezero (2Z) that will be listed in Binance Alpha, Coinone, Kraken, Bithumb, OKX and others.
Conferences
For a more complete list of events this week, see the “Cryptocurrency Week” of Coindesk.
Token talk
By Oliver Knight
- The founder of Plasma, Paulie Punt, has refuted the statements that the recently issued Token XPL had been sold by team members, despite the data in the chain that suggest otherwise.
- Paul declared that no member of the Plasma team has sold his Holdings XPL since its launch. According to him, all investors and equipment assignments are subject to a three -year block with a one -year cliff, which means that it cannot be accessed or sold within that period. He stressed that the circulating statements of internal discharge were unfounded.
- The Plasma founder also withdrew against the characterizations that the team was mainly composed of “ex-white” employees. Of the approximately 50 team members, only three had previous periods in Blur or Blast, he said. He pointed out that the group also includes professionals with a history in Google, Facebook, Square, TeMek, Goldman Sachs and Nuvei, who underline the broader pedigree of the project.
- Another point of discussion has been winter, a well -known cryptography trade firm often compromised as a market manufacturer for new projects. Paul denied that Plasma had a contract with Wintermute for the manufacture of market or other services, saying that the company has no more information about Wintermute’s Holdings XPL than the public.
- The pseudonym researcher of Manamoon initially stated that more than 600 million tokens XPL have been transferred from the project vault to exchanges from launch.
- XPL has had a relatively poor performance since the launch, sliding from a maximum of $ 1.68 to $ 0.97, while the daily negotiation volume has remained stable at $ 2.6 billion.
Derivative positioning
- The BTC futures market is showing a strong and sustained bullish trend, with key metrics that reach new maximums. The open interest has risen to a historical maximum of $ 32.6 billion, which reflects a significant increase in exposure to the merchant, with Binance leading the road in $ 13.6 billion.
- This record of interest is supported by a stable annualized base of 3 months, which has resolved around 7%, indicating that the basis of trade remains profitable and reinforces the positive feeling of the market. The combination of these two metrics suggest that the recent price action is being driven by a solid bullish positioning based on convictions instead of short -term speculation.
- The BTC options market presents a complex and contradictory image of the feeling. While 25 Delta’s bias for short -term options continues its downward trend, now with only 3.25%, suggesting that merchants are willing to pay a premium for coverage stalls against the downward risk, the volume of put/24 -hour called a different story.
- Calls are still dominating the volume of more than 56%, indicating that most merchants are actively positioning for a rally instead of a decrease.
- Meanwhile, the BTC financing rate in the main exchanges is around 9% to 10% annualized, indicating a healthy demand for leverage long positions.
- However, a significant atypical value is the Delibit, where the financing rate has dramatically increased to more than 60%. This isolated but extreme peak suggests an intense and concentrated demand for long positions on that platform, but the general market, including Altcoins, still does not seem to be overheated with average funds for the 30 main currencies through market capitalization in about 10% annualized, according to the coinglasa.
Market movements
- BTC increases 1.12% of 4 PM ET on Wednesday to $ 118,927.57 (24 hours: +2.23%)
- ETH has increased 1.27% to $ 4,392.20 (24 hours: +2.59%)
- COINDESK 20 increases 1.49% to 4,232.18 (24 hours: +2.41%)
- The commitment rate composed of CESR Ether does not change to 2.87%
- The BTC financing rate is at 0.0135% (14,7825 annualized) in Kucoin
- Dxy has dropped 0.18% to 97.53
- Gold futures rose 0.12% to $ 3,902.00
- Silver futures have dropped 0.2% to $ 47.58
- Nikkei 225 closed 0.87% to 44,936.73
- Hang Seng closed 1.61% to 27,287.12
- Ftse has not changed to 9,449.86
- Euro Stoxx 50 has increased 1.30% to 5,653.99
- Djia closed Wednesday without changes at 46,441.10
- S&P 500 closed 0.34% at 6,711.20
- The Nasdaq compound closed 0.42% to 22,755.16
- The S&P/TSX compound closed 0.28% at 30,107.67
- S&P 40 Latin America closed 1.55% to 2,905.87
- The 10 -year Treasury rate of US has dropped 1.2 bp to 4,094%
- E-mini s & p 500 futures have not changed to 6,766.50
- E-mini nasdaq-100 the futures rose 0.25% to 25,081.00
- The average industrial e-mini jones index has dropped 0.11% to 46,672.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC domain: 58.84% (-0.36%)
- Bitcoin ether ratio: 0.03691 (0.63%)
- Hashrat (seven -day mobile): 1,059 eh/s
- HASHPRICE (SPOT): $ 49.91
- Total rates: 3.63 BTC / $ 423,349
- CME Futures Open Interest: 137,820 BTC
- BTC with a gold price: 30.6 oz
- BTC vs Gold Market Cap: 8.66%
Technical analysis
- Yesterday’s move saw Bitcoin break the block of bearish orders in The Daily, which is now quoted at $ 118,675. The daily closure indicates a change in the structure of the market, favoring bulls.
- A new proof of the order block, turning it from the resistance to support, it would be a healthy setback that could allow Bitcoin to test the maximum of all time. The bulls will want to see Bitcoin establish acceptance above the order block.
Cryptographic equities
- Global Coinbase (COIN): closed on Wednesday at $ 346.17 ( +2.57%), +2% to $ 353.11 in the previous market
- Internet Circle (CRCL): closed at $ 129.03 (-2.68%), +3% at $ 132.90
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): Closed at $ 35.83 ( +5.97%), +2.99% at $ 36.90
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $ 60.81 (-4.4%), +2.22% at $ 62.16
- Mara Holdings (Mara): closed at $ 18.61 ( +1.92%), +2.47% at $ 19.07
- Riot Platforms (Riot): closed at $ 18.93 (-0.53%), +1.74% at $ 19.26
- Core Scientific (Corz): closed at $ 17.97 ( +0.17%), +1.22% at $ 18.19
- Cleanspark (CLSK): closed at $ 14.59 ( +0.62%), +1.71% at $ 14.84
- COINSHARES VALKYRIE BITCOIN MINERS ETF (WGMI): Closed at $ 45.07 (+1.88%)
- Exodus movement (exod): closed at $ 28.31 ( +1.91%), +0.11% at $ 28.34
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (Mstr): closed at $ 338.41 ( +5.03%), +2.29% at $ 346.15
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $ 31.03 (+3.43%)
- Sharplink Gaming (Sbet): closed at $ 17.37 ( +2.12%), +1.78% at $ 17.68
- UPEXI (UPXI): Closed at $ 6.53 ( +13.17%), +2.6% at $ 6.70
- LITE STRATEGY (LIT): Closed at $ 2.56 ( +5.79%), +5.47% at $ 2.70
ETF flows
Spot BTC ETFS
- Daily net flow: $ 675.8 million
- Cumulative net flows: $ 58.4 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~ 1.32 million
Spot Eth Ethfs
- Daily net flow: $ 80.9 million
- Cumulative net flows: $ 13.9 billion
- Total eth holdings ~ 6,61 million
Source: Farside Investors
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