Bitcoin’s demand has expanded silently since July, preparing the stage for what could be another rally of the year in more than $ 200,000
The apparent demand has grown at a rate of approximately 62,000 BTC per month, according to Cryptoquant, a backdrop similar to the fourth quarter of 2020, 2021 and 2024 when prices rose higher.
The sustained growth of demand has historically served as one of the backgrounds for prices manifestations,
Much of that expansion is being driven by whales and ETF. The balances of large holders are increasing at an annualized rhythm of 331,000 BTC, a stronger trend than the 255,000 BTC recorded in the fourth quarter of 2024, the 238,000 BTC at the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2020, and a strong contrast with the contraction of 197,000 BTC that marked the weakest market in 2021.
The ETFs could add another layer since the products bought 213,000 BTC in the fourth quarter of 2024, a 71% jump in holdings, and can be positioned to increase allocations at the end of the year.
In order for this demand to translate into another break, the impulse on the price side is still critical. The assessment in the chain places the key threshold at the price of the merchant of $ 116,000.
A decisive movement above that level would mark the return transition to the “Toro” phase of the Toro Market Cycle indicator and could open an assessment band from $ 160,000 to $ 200,000 for the fourth quarter.
The indicator compares the current Bitcoin market price with several price metrics made, the average cost base of different groups of investors registered in the chain.
When the spot price rises above those levels, the model interprets it as a change in the “bull” phase, which reflects the growing impulse and profits at the base of the holder. When the spot price falls below, it marks the “bear” phase, pointing out stress and losses not performed.
The market conditions that enter October are surprisingly similar to last year.
The Cryptoquant Toro score index has maintained between 40 and 50 in recent days, levels that historically mark the edge of bullish conditions. In 2024, the index broke above 50 at the beginning of the fourth quarter, just before Bitcoin increased from around $ 70,000 to $ 100,000.
With demand metrics and strengthening, merchants are closely observing a repetition of that pattern in the coming months.
