The October rate of the Federal Reserve could trigger unexpected clashes in the actions of the United States and Bitcoin as the closing risks of the not resolved federal government cloud the perspectives.
Government closure delays key data before the FOMC meeting
A partial closure of the federal government began on October 1, closing many non -essential services, including the Office of Labor Statistics (BLS). This closure has indefinitely delayed the job report of September, a crucial indicator of the health market that is expected earlier this month.
This data freezing occurs only weeks before the Federal Open Market Committee Meeting (FOMC) from October 28 to 29, where the next decision of the Fed interest rate will be announced.
Despite this interruption, market optimism remains high.
According to Goldprice.org, gold prices were closed at $ 3,886 per ounce on Friday, winning more than 48% in the year to date.
Gold’s 2025 rally reflects large purchases of central banks by nations and the strong demand of ETF of private investors, driven by inflation concerns in the midst of President Trump’s commercial war, record the national debt levels of the United States and efforts by some countries, especially BRICS members, to reduce dependence on US dollars in US Russia-RekraÃna.
At the time of writing, according to Coindesk data, Bitcoin was quoted to around $ 123,196, not far from the price of all time of $ 125,506, observed previously in the day, promoted by strong institutional interests and ETF crypto tickets.
Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Avenge and S&P 500 closed the week at maximum records of 46,758.28 and 6,715.79, respectively, reflecting confidence in a soft feeding policy transition.
Today, Bitcoin, Gold and the S&P 500 are maximum records or nearby, probably due to the expectations of more rates cuts this year and the next and the investors who wish to protect themselves against persistent and growing inflation that seems to exist currently throughout the world.
Market consensus prices A 25 -base Fed cutting
Future and prediction markets have an overwhelming price in an interest rate cut of 25 basic points at the FOMC meeting.
As of October 5, the Fedwatch tool of the CME Group puts the probabilities at 96.2% for a cutting of 25 basic points and 3.8% not to change.
As for the Polymarket of the decentralized prediction platform, it predicts a 3% probability of an increase of more than 50 BPS, a 90% probability of an increase of 25 BPS and an 8% possibilities of non -changes.
Why the Fed pause feats may not be as unlikely as merchants expect
The closure of the federal government in progress hides a significant risk. With the employees of the US Labor Statistics Office (BLS).
The Fed faces the exceptionally difficult challenge to make a rate decision without crucial economic contributions, essentially flying blinds.
This lack of timely data raises the very real possibility that some FOMC members can advocate to stop the current rate of tariff cuts instead of continuing as expected.
Without clear visibility in the recent trajectory of the labor market, the risk of premature decrease that could destabilize inflation expectations. The previous actions of the Federal Reserve during periods of data shortage have often inclined towards caution to avoid the false steps of policies.
At the same time, several factors deepen this uncertainty.
The closure of the government itself creates downward risks through strengthened federal workers and potential losses of permanent jobs, which can worsen economic growth, but whose magnitude remains without being clear.
Meanwhile, many investors have placed portfolios in advance of more cuts, which means that a surprise break could disturb the markets and trigger the volatility that the FOMC would prefer to avoid.
Balancing these concerns, the FOMC probably weighs to continue with a modest cut of 25 basic points to maintain market confidence and coverage against economic risks. Even so, the pause remains a plausible result given these unprecedented challenges, emphasizing that the market expectations of a cut, although strong, are not guaranteed.
Private and regional data provide partial information in the middle of the stop
Between now and the FOMC meeting, several regional data launches of the private sector and the Federal Reserve will provide partial economic signals despite the closure.
If these indicators show an inflation of cooling and moderate growth, the president of the FED, Jerome Powell, could proceed with the cut of 25 basic points widely expected. The strongest signals of the persistence of inflation or growth resilience could push the Fed towards a pause, contradicting market prices and increased volatility.
If the closure ends, for example, in mid -October, the delayed official job report of September could be published before the FOMC meeting, providing a clearer data image of market expectations.
Why a basic point cut of 50 is very unlikely
Markets have largely ruled out a 50 -point rate cuts because inflation remains above 2% of the Fed, especially in services where salary pressures persist.
A half -point cut would run the risk of indicating premature flexibility and could destabilize the labor market and inflationary expectations.
Powell’s public statements emphasize the precaution and dependence of the data, which makes a more moderate basic point reduce the prudent path.
How investors can protect against a fed pause scenario
Given the potential of a policy pause that does not have a total price for the markets, investors, particularly in cryptography, should consider the risk of coverage:
- Bitcoin sales options and main stock rates offer a relatively economical way to protect against steep swings.
- Reduction of high leverage or dimensioning of position in volatile assets to mitigate reductions.
- Increased exposure to safe shelters, such as gold or treasure bonds, can provide portfolio ballast in market stress.
- Using Volatility ETF or funds to obtain sudden volatility peaks.
Institutional investors routinely employ such strategies; Retail investors have a growing number of low -cost tools to prepare similarly for tail risks.
Conclusion: Markets face an uncertain path towards the next FOMC meeting
The FOMC meeting from October 28 to 29 is emerging as a fundamental test for markets.
The closing of the current government has obscured vital data, creating a risky blind spot in the expectations of investors and policy formulators.
While markets overwhelmingly have a 25 basic points rate cut, a fed pause or a delay driven by data uncertainty could trigger acute corrections in actions and cryptography. Investors must monitor private economic indicators and regional inflation data during October and consider pragmatic coverage to protect against surprise volatility.
A balanced risk posture is essential to navigate this uncertain macroeconomic landscape.
