Bitcoin remains around $ 122,000 in Wednesday’s Asian hours after establishing a record of $ 126,200 earlier this week, and some market observers still expect an increase to a record of $ 140,000 at the end of this month.
Economist Timothy Peterson said in an X post on Tuesday that Bitcoin has a 50% probability of rising to $ 140,000, citing simulations based on data from the last decade.
“There is a 50% chance that Bitcoin ends the month above $ 140,000,” Peterson said in an X post on Wednesday. “But there is a 43% chance that Bitcoin ends below $ 136,000.”
According to this simulation of AI, it is possible that half of the October profits of Bitcoin have already occurred.
There is a 50% chance that Bitcoin ends the month above $ 140,000
But there is a 43% chance that Bitcoin ends below $ 136,000. pic.twitter.com/lphfr0mry9—Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) October 7, 2025
BTC has risen almost 10% since the beginning of October, which historically has been one of the most bullish periods for all financial assets. The measure has been driven by ETF record tickets and the exodus of centralized exchanges coins.
The balances of the currencies have fallen to a minimum of six years of 2.83 million BTC, with 170,000 coins removed last month. This combination of constant institutional purchases and increasingly lower offer has maintained superficial setbacks. The ETFs in cash that are quoted in the United States have added more than 60 billion dollars since their approval in January 204, including 3.2 billion dollars last week, the second largest registered weekly entry.
Negotiation tables indicate that the lower resistance path is even higher as “uptober” develops. In addition, the perspectives for the S&P 500 remain constructive, which supports the bicing argument in BTC.
“The options markets are discounting a wild probability of 5% of another 10% rebound in the SPX towards the end of the year, and it is increasingly difficult to find a negative catalyst to counteract that vision,” said Augustine Fan, head of Analysis of Signalplus, in a Telegram message. “We saw little short liquidation in the recent gap, which suggests that the participants are underpathed and have minimal risk exposure.”
Even so, optimism is not exempt from risk.
“The cryptocurrency market is sailing for a delicate balance between strong technical support and important macroeconomic uncertainty,” said Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research. “The trends of accumulation and institutional demand have promoted prices to new maximums, but optimism is still exposed to surprises by the Federal Reserve.”
The absence of new economic data publications due to the current closure of the US government has deprived critical information investors necessary to make new assignments. Some observers are concerned that the lack of new data, particularly inflation, can prevent the Federal Reserve from reduce rates.
When the FOMC and MAG-7 profits arrive at the end of this month, the data will collide with an already extended market and with a bullish trend. That will decide whether the next movement is a clean race at $ 140,000 or an even lower restart.
The BTC rebound has stopped in the last 24 hours thanks to the profits. Prices have fallen more than 2%, erasing an increase since Sunday and demolishing XRP, Sol de Solana and Ether. and Cardano’s Ada fell to 7%.
BNB of BNB Chain stands out with 1.5% profits in the same period, the solitary wolf in green since its underlying ecosystem sees a gust of new activity.
My goal: $ 125,000 is the battle line. The demand of ETF and whales withdrawals give a mattress to the bulls, but macro tranquility will not last.
