By Francisco Rodrigues (all schedules, Eastern time, unless otherwise indicated)
When gold exceeded the 4,000 dollar mark on an ounce for the first time, Bitcoin lost 1.25% of its value and the cryptographic market in general, measured by the Coindesk 20 index (CD20), fell 3%.
The fall occurred in the midst of a profit taking after the cryptocurrency market rose more than 7.7% in less than a week already measured the profits of the whale role. The divergence also occurs when the American dollar index (DXY) rises to its highest level in two months.
Gold, considered for a long time a safe shelter, has risen more than 50% this year. The entries of funds quoted in the stock market (ETF) linked to gold have accelerated and the holdings are now at their highest levels since the end of 2022, according to ing.
Investors seek coverage due to the growing political risk, including a new leadership crisis in France and growing tensions in the direction of Japan’s fiscal policy. Meanwhile, the closure of the US government, now in its second week, has delayed key economic data and has increased concerns about its fiscal perspectives.
Bitcoin, although it is often considered coverage against uncertainty, has been affected by the increase in the US dollar and short -term whales that move their BTC to the bags, which suggests that they have acted to ensure profits.
To the winds against Bitcoin, the strong increase in the yields of the Japanese government bonds, which jumped to a maximum of 17 years this week is added. The 10 -year yield reached 1.70%, discounting the fiscal risks of the spending agenda inspired by abenomics of the incoming prime minister Sanae Takaichi.
According to Goldman Sachs, the pressure of the bold Japanese returns could be extended to global bonds. The greatest yields of the bonds tend to harden financial conditions worldwide and reduce the appetite of investors by more risky assets such as BTC.
Even so, the institutional interest in Bitcoin persists. The ETFs in cash that quote in the United States added more than 3 billion dollars in tickets last week, raising the total net tickets to more than 60 billion dollars. This week, additional 2,000 million dollars have been raised, according to Sosovalue.
Other developments include that S&P Global presented the Markets 50 digital reference index that tracks 15 cryptocurrencies and 35 cryptovinculated actions, while Intercontinental Exchange invested an investment of $ 2 billion in the Polymarket crypto-native prediction market.
“In the short term, Bitcoin’s fundamental perspective remains positive, backed by monetary flexibility expectations, constant ETF entries and a persistent demand for safe refuge,” said Linh Tran, market analyst at XS.com, in a statement sent by email. “If the Federal Reserve sends clearer signals about the start of a cycle of type cuts in the next meetings, Bitcoin is likely to benefit, with space to spread to new price territories in the fourth quarter.”
The next test could come from the Federal Reserve. Operators are valuing fees cuts, and if the Federal Reserve confirms a change towards flexibility, both gold and bitcoin could see a renewed impulse.
Stay alert!
What to look at
To obtain a more complete list of this week’s events, see “Crypto Week Ahead” from Coindesk.
- Crypto
- Macro
- October 8, 9:30 am: speech by the governor of the Federal Reserve, Michael S. Barr, at the 2025 Community Banking Research Conference in St. Louis. Look live.
- October 8, 2 PM: Minutes of the FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve of September 16 and 17.
- Earnings (Estimates based on FACTSET data)
Symbolic events
To obtain a more complete list of this week’s events, see “Crypto Week Ahead” from Coindesk.
- Governance votes and calls
- ZKSYNC DAO is voting a proposal to assign 25 million ZK tokens (~ $ 1.25 million) for the “PRIVIDIUM Roadshow” until the end of 2026. The vote ends on October 8.
- GMX is celebrating elections for the third season of its listing committee, which will select three members to supervise and approve new assets lists in GMX protocols. The vote ends on October 8.
- Jito Dao is voting for a proposal to expand the set of validators from 200 to 400 and update the classification and eligibility criteria of Stakenet to address the negative dynamics of the interest group. The vote ends on October 8.
- Unlocks
- Tokens launches
- October 8: Sky (Sky) will appear in Bitflyer.
Conferences
To obtain a more complete list of this week’s events, see “Crypto Week Ahead” from Coindesk.
Symbolic talk
By Oliver Knight
- The BNB chain activity continues to dominate the Altcoins sector this week; stimulating a 10% daily gain to and an increase of 3% for BNB despite the general cooling of the market.
- The volume of operations in cash in Pancakeswap reached 19 billion dollars in the last 24 hours while the operators try to capitalize on the last wave of advertising; Memecoins in Chinese language that, in some cases, have already shot up valuations of more than 350 million dollars.
- The change of impulse towards BNB Chain, moving away from companies like Solana, began after the appearance of Aster, a decentralized perpetual exchange that has regularly exceeded 100 billion dollars in daily volume despite the statements about the disparities in the commercial flow.
- The total blocked value (TVL) in BNB Chain has increased from $ 6.5 billion to $ 9 billion since June, although it is still well below its $ 26.3 billion record established in 2021, which suggests that the ecosystem has more space to grow.
- Much of the network growth will also depend on the direction of the cryptographic market in general; BTC and ETH returned profits on Wednesday when the market began to consolidate after another failed break.
- A downward movement would probably affect the BNB chain, since cryptocurrency merchants often minimize the risk by changing to stable currencies, which reduces the demand for speculative memeco.
Derivative positioning
- The majority of the main tokens have experienced a drop in open interest (OI) of futures in the last 24 hours, AVAX being a remarkable exception, registering a 2% increase in OI.
- This generalized fall suggests that recent price actions are largely due to a gain taking more than an increase in bearish positions.
- Perpetual financing rates remain stable at or below the annualized 10%, reflecting a slight upward feeling in the market.
- In the CME, the open interest of Ether’s futures has decreased to 2.16 million ETH from Monday’s maximum of 2.34 million. Despite this setback, the general positioning remains relatively high, especially compared to Bitcoin’s open interest, which is still well below its maximum of December 2024.
- BTC and ETH futures premiums in the CME continue to quote below 10%.
- In Delibit, the Bitcoin options market shows a slightly negative bias in all deadlines, indicating that sales options are somewhat more expensive in relation to purchase options. Block operations predominantly differentially differentially called bitcoins and direct Ether call purchases out of money.
Market movements
- BTC has risen 0.45% from 4 PM ET on Tuesday to $ 122,564.51 (24 hours: -1.36%)
- ETH has dropped 0.62% to 4,484.06 (24 hours: -4.42%)
- COINDESK 20 has dropped 0.22% to 4,228.30 (24 hours: -3.15%)
- The participation rate composed of Ether Cesr rises 4 basic points to 2.89%
- BTC’s financing rate is 0.0091% (9,9645% annualized) in Kucoin
- DXY rises 0.38% to 98.95
- Gold futures rise 1.43% to $ 4,061.80
- Futures of La Plata rise 2.51 % to $ 48.71
- The Nikkei 225 closed with a 0.45% drop to 47,734.99
- Hang Seng closed with a 0.48% drop to 26,829.46
- The ftse rises 0.54% to 9,535.15
- The Stoxx 50 euro rises 0.39% to 5,635.69
- Djia closed Tuesday with a 0.2 cesr% drop to 46,602.98
- The S&P 500 closed with a 0.38% drop to 6,714.59
- Nasdaq Composite closed with a 0.67% drop to 22,788.36
- S&P/TSX Composite closed with a 0.59% drop at 30,351.72
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed with a 1.3% drop to 2,839.90
- The 10 -year American treasure rate lows 1.6 basic points up to 4,111%
- E-mini s&p 500 futures rise 0.15% to 6,771.50
- E-mini nasdaq-100 futures rise 0.21% to 25,091.00
- The E-Mini Dow Jones Industrial Average index rises 0.16% to 46,925.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC domain: 59.11% (0.19%)
- Bitcoin ether proportion: 0.03658 (-0.22%)
- HASHRATE (seven -day mobile average): 1,011 eh/s
- Hash price (cash): $ 51.52
- Total rates: 4.04 BTC / $ 498 734
- Open interest of CME futures: 145.005 BTC
- Gold quoted BTC: 30.5 oz
- BTC market capitalization against gold: 8.62%
Technical analysis
- The previous graph shows the monthly performance of Cake, the token of native governance and utility for Pancakeswap, in candle format.
- While Cake has risen more than 70% this month, prices are still trapped in a consolidation channel that takes three years.
- Prolonged remote game periods are often resolved with a violent movement in any direction. Be careful with a bullish break, since it could lead to a strong rebound.
Cryptographic actions
- Global Coinbase (Coin): It closed on Tuesday at $ 375.78 (-2.67%), +0.62% at $ 378.10 in pre-market
- Internet Circle (CRCL): It closed at $ 148.72 ( +0.14%), +1.14% to $ 150.41
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): It closed at $ 39.58 ( +1.91%), +3.61% at 41.01
- Alcista (BLSH): It closed at $ 65.1 (-5.36%), +1.01% at $ 65.76
- Mara Holdings (Mara): It closed at $ 20.25 (-1.56%), +0.69% at $ 20.39
- Riot Platforms (Riot): closed at $ 21.47 (-0.42%), +1.30% to $ 21.75
- Core Scientific (Corz): It closed at $ 17.1 (-4.52%), +0.88% at $ 17.25
- Cleanspark (CLSK): It closed at $ 17.96 ( +3.04%), +3.17% to $ 18.53
- ETF Coinshares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners (WGMI): closed at $ 53.38 ( +2.08%), +1.12% at $ 53.98
- Exodus movement (exod): closed at $ 29.71 (-6.28%)
Cryptographic Treasury Companies
- Strategy (Mstr): closed at $ 328.4 (-8.7%), +1.98% at $ 334.89
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): It closed at $ 28.36 (-7.77%), +1.09% at $ 28.67
- Sharplink Gaming (Sbet): It closed at $ 17.77 (-7.64%), +0.62% to $ 17.88
- UPEXI (UPXI): It closed at $ 7.05 (-8.44%), +0.85% at $ 7.11
- Lite Strategy (LITS): It closed at $ 2.45 (-5.77%), +2.45% at $
ETF flows
ETF Al BTC Cash
- Daily net flow: $ 875.6 million
- Accumulated net flows: 62,090 million dollars
- Total BTC holdings ~ 1.35 million
ETF to Cash of ETH
- Daily net flow: $ 420.9 million
- Accumulated net flows: 15,030 million dollars
- Total eth holdings 6.79 million
Source: Farside investors
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