Good morning Asia. This is what is making news in the markets:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top news during US time and an overview of market movements and analysis. For a detailed overview of the US markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.
Bitcoin is starting Thursday’s trading day in Asia trading above $123,000, and its chart looks like a rocket trail through the fog, analysts say, painting it as an aggressive rally driven by ETF inflows, mid-level accumulation and a quiet conviction that this is not the top yet.
That conviction is based on three converging signals from leading market observers.
In its most recent note, QCP wrote that it sees capital shifting from overextended AI stocks toward “credibility hedges” like gold and Bitcoin as political uncertainty deepens.
Glassnode points to record ETF inflows and mid-level accumulation that will turn resistance into support. And CryptoQuant wrote that it finds on-chain profit-taking is still well below historical peaks, suggesting the rally has room to continue even as leverage increases. Together, they describe a market that is structurally bullish but tactically crowded: steady hands below, froth above.
But the same data that shows conviction also points to complacency. Futures open interest has hit record highs, funding rates are above 8%, and put-heavy positioning leaves the market vulnerable to a sharp decline if momentum fades. Analysts call it a classic “strong trend, weak hands” setup: a setup that often needs a reset of leverage before the next leg up.
“The current pullback is testing this leverage, helping to reset positioning and restore balance,” Glassnode wrote in its weekly report. QCP Capital added that “yesterday’s move lower seemed like positioning, not policy,” while CryptoQuant noted that “profit taking remains moderate compared to previous market highs.”
However, even across data banks, the message is not uniform. Glassnode warns that leverage needs to be removed before the rally can stabilize; CryptoQuant maintains that the market still has some breathing room before the euphoria hits; and QCP frames the move as a macro rotation toward “credibility hedges” like gold and BTC.
Bitcoin’s rise is observed from three different altitudes.
With funding rates high and open interest still rising, traders may get the reset they have been warning about. The question is not whether Bitcoin can hold $120,000, but whether the next drop will demonstrate the depth of the rally or expose its fragility.
Market movement
BTC: bitcoin is trading above $123,000, steady after recovering from this week’s pullback as ETF inflows and whale accumulation continue to support prices. While near-term momentum has cooled, institutional demand and the broader “downgrade trade” narrative keep the bullish trend intact heading into the seasonally bullish October period.
ETH: Ethereum is trading at $4,516, holding steady after recent volatility as traders return to top layer 1 assets. Sentiment remains supported by strong ETF inflows, optimism ahead of Fusaka’s December upgrade, and renewed institutional interest in DeFi bets and returns.
Gold: Gold surpassed $4,000 for the first time on Wednesday, its 40th record this year, driven by geopolitical tensions, U.S. fiscal uncertainty and sustained central bank demand led by China’s 11th consecutive month of gold purchases.
Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 1.1% on Thursday, led by a 10% rise in SoftBank after it agreed to buy ABB’s robotics unit for $5.4 billion, as optimism about Prime Minister-elect Sanae Takaichi’s expansionary agenda and continued loose monetary policy drove gains in technology and cyclical stocks.
Elsewhere in Crypto
- ‘Don’t be stupid’: Why Grant Cardone says bitcoiners shouldn’t chase historic gold rally (Decrypt)
- Coinbase Is Hiring a ‘Token Research and Governance Specialist’ for Its Base (The Block) Team
- Brevan Howard-Backed Tokenization Firm Extends Funding to Sei as RWA Momentum Grows (CoinDesk)
