By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
It is a difficult market to trade like bitcoin. the price fluctuates sharply. After a Thursday night drop from $123,000 to $120,000, BTC has recovered to trade around $121,400, with privacy coins like and increasing sharply. The CoinDesk 20 index has bounced to 4,178 points from the overnight low of 4,097.
BTC volatility has increased, likely in anticipation of another Fed rate cut later this month.
“Bitcoin volatility is set for a breakout. Implied volatilities on 14-, 30-, and 90-day expirations have risen to their highest levels in the last 30 days, pointing to increased anticipation of big future moves,” said Nick Forster, founder of decentralized exchange Derive.
Forster added that the so-called spike in volatility comes as markets price in an almost certain 25 basis point cut by the Federal Reserve later this month.
Polymarket bettors are pricing in a 91% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points at its Oct. 28-29 meeting, even as the ongoing government shutdown has delayed the release of key data. The central bank cut rates by 25 bps to 4% last month.
In other news, State Street’s 2025 Digital Asset Outlook showed that nearly 60% of institutional investors plan to increase their exposure to digital assets in the coming year, with the average exposure expected to double within three years.
Several Democratic US senators reportedly made a counterproposal to the market structure bill, which involved a “restricted list” for DeFi protocols deemed too risky. Crypto lawyer Jake Chervinsk said it could derail regulatory progress while undermining the bipartisan support for the Clarity Act seen in the House in July.
Meanwhile, Chainlink launched a Chainlink-grade RPC endpoint for the HyperEVM testnet, providing @HyperliquidX ecosystem builders with infrastructure for developers working on innovative solutions such as HIP-3, vaults, liquid staking tokens (LST), and point-in-time deployment.
In traditional markets, the dollar index continues to hover at two-month highs as China tightened its control over rare earth exports, intensifying trends ahead of an expected meeting between Xi and Trump in South Korea later this month. Stay alert!
What to watch
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Macro
- October 10, 8 am: Brazil August PPI YoY (previous 1.36%), MoM (previous -0.3%).
- October 10, 8:30 am: Estimated September unemployment rate in Canada. 7.2%.
- Oct. 10, 10 a.m.: Michigan Consumer Sentiment Estimate for October (preliminary). 54.2.
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
symbolic events
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- Decentraland DAO is voting to replace the DAO Committee with 3 of 5 ecosystem representatives, shifting execution-only tasks while the council retains oversight. Voting ends on October 10.
- Unlock
- October 10: to unlock 6.57% of its circulating supply worth $26.73 million.
- October 11: to unlock 2.15% of its circulating supply worth $59.98 million.
- October 12: to unlock 16.08% of its circulating supply worth $67.7 million.
- Token releases
Conferences
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
symbolic talk
By Oliver Knight
- The recent Chinese memecoin frenzy that sent tokens like GIGGLE, 四, and 哈基米 on PancakeSwap V2 soaring has abruptly fizzled out.
- Within 24 hours, many of these assets lost more than 95% of their value, wiping out speculative gains based on publicity and social momentum.
- The drop coincided with a broader memecoin market crash that Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao described as a “bloodbath,” fueled by FUD and false rumors about token listings.
- The drop comes after Binance launched its “Meme Rush” platform, which was supposed to provide a structured path for tokens before they become tradable on various decentralized and centralized exchanges.
- However, just as Solana memecoins faded away in February following the release of TRUMP and MELANIA, BNB Chain memes appear to be following the same route to demise.
- Pancake Swap trading volume has remained inflated at $18 billion over the past 24 hours, with a handful of newly launched tokens receiving a bid, although it’s worth noting that liquidity remains relatively low; with w
Derivatives positioning
- Data from Coinglass shows that many BTC perpetual short positions face the risk of liquidation above $121,600. Therefore, a sustained move above that level could trigger a brief contraction, leading to a rapid rally towards all-time highs.
- The market is experiencing a leverage reset, with volatility removing excess positioning on both sides, Glassnode said. Still, overall positioning in the global BTC futures market remains elevated, with open interest just shy of the record 755,000 BTC.
- BNB, XRP, ADA, and TRX have seen a drop in futures open interest (OI) in the last 24 hours, indicating capital outflows. BTC OI is up 1%, and ETH is up just 0.4%.
- The XMR market appears a bit overheated, with annualized funding rates approaching 60%, a sign of frenetic demand for bullish bets. Funding rates for other major tokens, including BTC and ETH, paint a bullish picture, but nothing out of the ordinary.
- On the Derive decentralized exchange, open interest in options expiring on October 31 is concentrated in call options with strike prices of $128,000 and $145,000, reflecting a bullish bias. ETH options activity is similarly bullish, with OI concentrated on $5,000 and $6,000 calls.
- However, on Deribit, the buying and selling bias for BTC and ETH remains slightly negative across all time frames, reflecting a bias for protective puts. Block flows on Paradigm included ETH call and put options.
Market movements
- BTC is up 0.17% as of 4 pm ET Thursday to $121,389.27 (24 hours: -0.59%)
- ETH is down 0.37% to $4,323.41 (24 hours: -0.54%)
- CoinDesk 20 rose 0.4% to 4,162.46 (24 hours: +0.02%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate Up 1bp to 2.86%
- BTC funding rate is 0.0045% (4.8968% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is down 0.24% at 99.29
- Gold futures rise 1.00% to $4,012.20
- Silver futures rise 2.45% to $48.31
- The Nikkei 225 closed down 1.01% at 48,088.80
- Hang Seng closed down 1.73% at 26,290.32
- The FTSE is down 0.14% at 9,495.88
- Euro Stoxx 50 unchanged at 5,627.22
- DJIA closed Thursday down 0.52% at 46,358.42
- The S&P 500 closed down 0.28% at 6,735.11
- Nasdaq Composite closed unchanged at 23,024.62
- S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.76% at 30,269.98
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed with a fall of 0.51% to 2,858.54
- The 10-year US Treasury rate fell 3.5 basis points to 4.113%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures unchanged at 6,785.00
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures rise 0.1% to 25,313.50
- The E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average index rises 0.11% to 46,643.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 59.36% (unchanged)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03563 (-0.75%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 997 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $51.21
- Total fees: 3.79 BTC / $462,241
- CME Futures Open Interest: 147,025 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 30.4 oz
- BTC market capitalization against gold: 8.59%
Technical analysis
- BTC’s dominance rate, or its share of the total market cap, is looking to establish a new bullish trend, having risen from 57% to over 59% in two weeks.
- The increase indicates that capital is once again flowing to the market leader.
- In other words, altcoin season is not here yet.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Thursday at $387 (-0.07%), -0.22% at $386.15
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $150.48 (+0.01%), -0.19% at $150.19
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $42.22 (+2.01%), +2.08% at $43.10
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $66.71 (-1.04%), +0.13% at $66.80
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $20.2 (0%), +1.53% at $20.51
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $22.28 (+1.32%), +0.4% at $22.37
- Core Scientific (CORZ): Closed at $18.04 (+2.91%), +1.16% at $18.25
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $20.09 (+5.85%), +4.03% to $20.90
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $57.57 (+3.95%), +3.42% to $59.54
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $29.67 (-1.33%), +1.08% at $29.99
Crypto treasury companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $320.29 (-3.18%), +0.53% at $322.00
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $28.32 (+0.43%)
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $16.95 (-3.53%), -1.47% at $16.70
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $6.85 (-4.46%), -0.44% at $6.82
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $2.54 (+1.6%), +11.42% at $2.83
ETF Flows
BTC Spot ETF
- Daily net flow: $197.8 million
- Accumulated net flows: $62.73 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.36 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flow: -8.7 million dollars
- Accumulated net flows: $15.1 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~6.89 million
Source: Farside Investors
while you were sleeping
