US President Donald Trump undeniably scored a diplomatic victory by helping broker a truce for Gaza, but the path to the lasting peace he says he wants for the Middle East is fraught with obstacles.
And it remains to be seen whether the 79-year-old Trump (who is not exactly known for his attention to the fine print) will devote the same level of energy to the long-term conflict once he finishes his round of victory in the region next week.
“Any agreement between Israelis and Palestinians, but especially one negotiated indirectly between Israel and Hamas, is an extraordinary achievement,” said Aaron David Miller, who worked for multiple US administrations of both parties. AFP.
“Trump decided to do something that no American president … of either party has ever done, which is to pressure and pressure an Israeli prime minister on an issue that that prime minister considered vital to his policy,” said Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
But Miller, who has participated in Middle East peace talks over the years, warned of the “universe of complexity and detail” that still needs to be resolved regarding the implementation of the second phase of the agreement.
The Israeli army said its troops had ceased fire at 0900 GMT on Friday in the Gaza Strip, in anticipation of the release of all Israeli hostages, dead and alive, within the next 72 hours, in compliance with the agreement reached with the Palestinian armed group Hamas.
Trump has said he hopes to travel to the Middle East on Sunday, with stops in Egypt, where the talks took place, and Israel.
Art of the deal?
Given that every American president of the last 20 years has failed to resolve the crises between Israel and the Palestinians, Trump’s achievement is already notable.
But the billionaire Republican president has broader aspirations: reviving the Abraham Accords reached during his first term in the White House, under which the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco offered diplomatic recognition to Israel.
Trump has brought his son-in-law Jared Kushner, one of the architects of those agreements, back to the administration to work with special envoy Steve Witkoff on the Gaza negotiations.
Foreign policy officials and observers agree that Trump skillfully used a combination of carrots and sticks (publicly and privately, and especially with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu) to close the deal.
He also leveraged his strong ties with Arab and Muslim leaders, including Türkiye’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
For Miller, Trump clearly played a “decisive” role.
But while the first phase of the agreement appears to be underway, much remains to be determined, including how (and if) Hamas will agree to disarm after two years of devastating conflict in the Palestinian territory, following its October 7, 2023 attack on Israel.
“A ceasefire is not yet a lasting peace,” French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said Thursday after meeting with European and Arab ministers on how to help the Palestinians in the post-conflict period.
Steven Cook, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, wrote: “Whether this will lead to the end of the war remains an open question.”
Great challenges
Cook says the challenge now is to fully implement Trump’s 20-point plan, which calls for Hamas to hand over its weapons, the creation of an international stabilization force and new governance structures for Gaza that do not include the Palestinian resistance group.
Trump insisted Thursday that “there will be disarmament” by Hamas and “withdrawals” of Israeli forces.
Then on Friday, he added: “I think there is consensus on most of it and some of the details, like anything else, will be worked out.”
But his administration will have to work hard to finalize the deal and ensure that Arab countries in the region invest in helping rebuild a devastated Gaza.
A team of 200 US military personnel will “monitor” the truce in Gaza, senior US officials said Thursday.
Miller said there are “operational” holes in the plan as it stands, including “no detailed planning on how to dismantle and/or demilitarize Gaza, even if you had Hamas’s consent, which you don’t.”
The plan also calls for the creation of the so-called “Peace Board”, a transitional body that will be chaired by Trump himself, a proposal that Hamas rejected on Thursday.
“Despite coming to power eager to shed America’s commitments in the Middle East, Trump has just taken on a huge one: responsibility for a peace plan that will always bear his name,” wrote Robert Satloff, executive director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
