Gold is up almost 60% so far this year, substantially outperforming bitcoin, which, by comparison, is up a measly 13%, despite all the talk of a bull market.
Analysts say gold is not overvalued, despite the epic rally, and Kalshi traders are confident that 2025 will be the year the yellow metal surpasses BTC.
However, data from Hyperliquid suggests that cryptocurrency traders remain out of the game. Only 34% of positions are long, with only 35% of traders profitable, and most trapped in losing short positions as volatility rocks markets as hyper-leveraged accounts increase G-forces on the rollercoaster.
The average user’s daily PnL has sunk to just under $50,000, indicating that most have been consistently on the wrong side of the market.
It’s a revealing snapshot of a shocked business community. The latest demise of famed trader Machi Big Brother, whose account fell from $43 million in profits to more than $13 million in losses, underscores how overleveraged bets on bitcoin’s rebound continue to backfire.
The combination of misplaced conviction and excessive leverage has turned crypto markets into a graveyard of ill-timed trades rather than a reflection of genuine macroeconomic demand.
Glassnode’s latest market report reinforces this picture of fragility.
The research firm describes the recent $19 billion deleveraging as one of the largest in bitcoin history, removing leverage and leaving the market in what it calls a “reset phase.”
Funding rates have plummeted to FTX collapse levels in 2022, ETF inflows have turned negative, and long-term holders are getting stronger. Glassnode warns that unless new demand emerges, bitcoin is at risk of a deeper contraction below the $108,000 level.
In contrast, gold’s rise has been driven by conviction rather than leverage. Geopolitical tensions, cooling inflation and bets on rate cuts have reinforced its appeal as a safe haven asset in a world of macroeconomic uncertainty. The speculative structure of cryptocurrencies, which depends on ETF flows and derivatives leverage, has failed to capture the same narrative tailwind.
For now, the data tells a clear story: Traders may still want a bitcoin bull market, but the market they actually have looks much more like that of gold.
Market movement:
BTC: Bitcoin is trading around $108,287, falling due to renewed risk aversion, profit-taking after recent rallies, and macroeconomic uncertainty.
ETH: Ether is changing hands at $3,891, experiencing a sell-off alongside BTC as speculative demand weakens amid broader crypto pressure.
Gold: Gold is rising as investors seek a safe haven given current geopolitical tensions and expectations of US rate cuts.
Nikkei 225: The Nikkei 225 is down 0.3% as major markets in Asia fall on growing concerns over geopolitical tensions.
Elsewhere in Crypto
- The Trump Family Has Already Made Over $1 Billion in Crypto Profits, Says Eric Trump (Decrypt)
- SEC Commissioner Peirce defends financial privacy, says tokenization is a “big focus right now” (The Block)
- BNY Mellon Remains “Agile” on Stablecoin Plans, Focuses on Infrastructure (CoinDesk)
