Bitcoin The short-term outlook may seem bleak with the price hovering around $105,000, but the US fiscal outlook looks considerably brighter.
According to CNBC, the US Treasury recorded a surplus of $198 billion in September 2025, the largest on record for that month. This strong finish helped reduce the 2025 fiscal deficit to $1.78 trillion, about $41 billion (2.2%) less than in 2024.
While September usually sees a fiscal surplus due to tax payments, this time an additional factor contributed: import duties (tariffs), which President Donald Trump introduced in April. The tariffs generated $30 billion in revenue in September, nearly half of what had been forecast for the entire fiscal year.
These revenues helped offset record interest payments on the $38 trillion national debt, which have reached more than $1.2 trillion annually. In September, net interest payments totaled $37 billion, making it the fourth-largest federal outlay of the month. It fell behind Social Security ($133 billion), health spending ($94 billion) and national defense ($76 billion).
The higher-than-expected revenue from Trump’s tariffs suggests he is likely to remain committed to his trade war strategy despite potential market volatility. This could lead investors to move away from risk assets and seek safety in alternatives such as bonds and gold, mirroring the market reaction seen during the April “tariff tantrum.”
While a possible worsening of trade tensions could increase inflation, the Federal Reserve expects any price increases to be temporary and is likely to continue lowering interest rates, currently between 4.00% and 4.25%.
According to the CME Fed Watch Tool, the market is pricing in 50 basis points of rate cuts by 2025, which will take the benchmark rate between 3.50% and 3.75%. It remains to be seen whether the impending easing provides relief for risk assets.
