Cryptocurrency traders have long dubbed October “Uptober” in a colloquialism that refers to the month’s trend of generating the biggest rallies for bitcoin. But this year’s record is shaping up to be the worst since 2015, so far.
Bitcoin is down 5% so far this month, trading near $107,000 in late Asian hours on Sunday, CoinGlass data shows. The historical average for October is around 19.8%, along with 42% in November, which is the asset’s strongest month.
Macroeconomic risk has drowned out seasonality. The tariff standoff between the United States and China, weak liquidity and a series of leveraged losses have combined to limit the upside.
Bitcoin’s fall below $107,000 last week triggered another $1.2 billion in liquidations, wiping out long positions built after the September rally. Ethereum, Solana and BNB are each down between 4% and 7% on the week, while smaller tokens like and They have fallen more than 20%. The CoinDesk 20 index was down 8% in October.
October’s red streak is unprecedented, but rare. Bitcoin has only closed the month lower twice in twelve years: 2014 and 2018, with the latter ending with a 3% drop.
However, in 2020, bitcoin went from a loss in early October to a 27% rally by the end of the month, setting all-time highs for the following year. With two weeks left, the calendar still leaves room for a reversal.
“Uptober” may not be it, but it’s proving its name this year.
