By Francisco Rodrigues (All times Eastern Time unless otherwise noted)
bitcoin and the broader crypto market rallied over the weekend, offering a brief respite after harsh selling pressure kept cryptocurrency prices depressed following a $500 billion value destruction event.
The price of bitcoin rose 3% in the last 24 hours to $110,770. It is still down around 4% for the month. The recovery came as global risk sentiment improves, with stocks rising and investors returning to more volatile assets.
US President Donald Trump’s softer stance on tariffs and signs that the Federal Reserve could ease monetary policy later this year have helped calm markets. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) is up 4.3% in the last 24 hours with all members in the green.
“While bitcoin has seen a notable short-term correction, the long-term trend remains a different story as the cryptocurrency’s trajectory is still heavily influenced by macroeconomic factors such as the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, the strength of the US dollar, bitcoin ETF spot flows and geopolitical risks,” said Linh Tran, market analyst at XS.com, to CoinDesk in an emailed statement.
Still, the short-term momentum may not indicate a lasting trend. Analysts at Coinbase Institutional warned that low liquidity, a strong US dollar and uncertainty around the path of the Federal Reserve’s rates continue to weigh on market structure.
A rise in US Treasury yields late last week and geopolitical tensions with Israel carrying out retaliatory airstrikes in Gaza following attacks on its forces while a ceasefire was in effect and as Russia advances in Ukraine, have kept many institutional investors cautious.
However, corporate accumulation has continued, and data from BitcoinTreasuries shows that in the last 30 days these entities increased their holdings by 8.4% to 4.04 million BTC. Access to cryptocurrency exposure is also growing, with BlackRock and 21Shares adding their cryptocurrency ETPs to the London Stock Exchange for retail investors.
“Overall, in my view, bitcoin is currently in a reaccumulation phase following its short-term correction, with market sentiment stabilizing and institutional demand remaining resilient,” Tran added. Stay alert!
What to watch
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- October 20: Ether Treasury firm ETHZilla Corp. (ETHZ) will implement a 1-for-10 reverse stock split, reducing shares outstanding to 16 million.
- Macro
- October 20, 8:30 am: Canada September PPI. Year-on-year title (previous 4%), month-on-month (previous 0.5%).
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
symbolic events
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- GnosisDAO is voting on a proposal to fund ProbeLab with $105,000 to develop detailed performance and security metrics for the Gnosis Chain P2P network. Voting ends on October 21.
- 1inch DAO is voting to remove Unicorn Power’s 5% staking requirement for Fusion resolvers. Voting ends on October 21.
- Unlock
- October 20: to unlock 7.86% of its circulating supply worth $44.73 million.
- Token releases
- October 20: Falcon Finance S2 Staking Deadline.
Conferences
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
symbolic talk
By Oliver Knight
- A rise in the value of several altcoins, particularly the popular memecoin floki, resulted in an improvement in sentiment across the cryptocurrency market on Monday, although CoinMarketCap’s altcoin seasonal index remains at 26/100, indicating investors’ preference for bitcoin over speculative plays.
- Bitcoin dominance, a metric used to assess how much of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization can be attributed to BTC, is at 58.8%, an increase from this time last month, when it was at 57.2%.
- While there were signs of recovery on Monday, several altcoins are still significantly below where they were a week ago. Synthetix is ​​down 30%, and others including FET, ASTER, and BNB are facing losses of between 15% and 25%.
- One of the drivers of the positive sentiment on Monday was LINK, which rose 14% after a number of wallets collectively withdrew $116 million in Binance tokens, indicating an accumulation after last week’s drop.
- The average crypto Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 54.2/100, suggesting that the market is in a state of limbo as it distances itself from key support levels, but remains far from challenging major resistance levels.
Derivatives positioning
- BTC options positioning remains firmly bullish, with a call open interest ratio of 0.66 and a large accumulation at the $140,000 strike price, where more than $2.4 billion in notional call exposure is concentrated. This indicates that traders continue to price in bullish momentum through the end of the year, even as spot volatility rises.
- Total open interest in bitcoin Deribit options has risen to 427,746 contracts, marking a yearly high. The Dec. 26 expiry ($14.3 billion notional) dominates, suggesting traders are extending bullish bets further down the curve while maintaining tactical flexibility in shorter-dated options.
- ETH options show similar positioning, with buying dominance around strike prices between $4,000 and $4,500 and increasing open interest until the end-December expirations, mirroring the structure of BTC.
Market movements
- BTC is up 3.65% since 4 pm ET on Friday to $110,980.77 (24 hours: +3.32%)
- ETH is up 5% to $4,051.70 (24 hours: +2.96%)
- CoinDesk 20 rose 5.52% to 3,706.47 (24 hours: +3.47%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 14 basis points to 2.82%
- BTC funding rate is 0.0015% (1.6097% annualized) on Binance
- DXY remains unchanged at 98.48
- Gold futures rise 1.52% to $4,277.30
- Silver futures rise 1.50% to $50.85
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 3.37% at 49,185.50
- Hang Seng closed up 2.42% at 25,858.83
- The FTSE rises 0.28% to 9,381.02
- The Euro Stoxx 50 rises 0.64% to 5,643.36
- DJIA closed Friday up 0.52% at 46,190.61
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.53% at 6,664.01
- Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.52% at 22,679.97
- S&P/TSX Composite closed down 1.15% at 30,108.48
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.55% at 2,884.62
- The 10-year US Treasury rate rises 0.5 basis points to 4.014%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures up 0.25% to 6,719.00
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures rise 0.34% to 25,071.50
- The E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average rises 0.19% to 46,469.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 59.68% (0.18%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03649 (-0.46%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1153 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $47.74
- Total fees: 2.23 BTC / $240,861
- CME Futures Open Interest: 144,335 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 26.4 oz
- BTC market capitalization against gold: 7.44%
Technical analysis
- After retesting the weekly order block during the Oct. 10 liquidation waterfall, the ETH-BTC ratio closed the week above the yearly open, a positive sign for bulls.
- Maintaining this key level will be crucial because the ratio often serves as a leading indicator of altcoins’ outperformance.
- Now that ETH-BTC is breaking out of a multi-week downtrend, the next major resistance lies at the 100-week exponential moving average, currently around $0.03904.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed Friday at $336.02 (+1.75%), +3.4% at $347.43
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $126.49 (-1.53%), +3.43% to $130.74
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $37.78 (-5.34%)
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $57.07 (-0.83%), +2.59% to $58.58
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $19.57 (-3.43%), +4.65% to $20.48
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $20.03 (+2.46%), +3.89% at $20.81
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $19 (-3.41%), +2.58% at $19.49
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $19.52 (-2.33%), +4.38% to $20.38
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $58.23 (-1.85%), +5.74% to $61.57
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $24.86 (-1.27%), unchanged in the premarket
Crypto treasury companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $289.87 (+2.12%), +3.72% at $300.65
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $23.18 (-6.04%), +2.55% to $23.77
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $14.34 (-1.58%), +3.7% to $14.87
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $5.4 (-3.74%), +5.74% to $5.71
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.88 (+1.62%), +4.79% at $1.97
ETF Flows
BTC Spot ETF
- Daily net flow: -366.6 million dollars
- Accumulated net flows: $61.5 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.35 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flow: -$232.2 million
- Accumulated net flows: $14.61 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~6.79 million
Source: Farside Investors
while you were sleeping
