NEWNow you can listen to Pak Gazette articles!
George Springer carved out a place in Toronto Blue Jays history when he hit a three-run home run in the seventh inning that sent his team to a 4-3 victory over the Seattle Mariners in Game 7 of the American League Championship Series.
Springer’s drive to left field Monday night didn’t have the same impact as Joe Carter’s home run that gave Toronto the World Series in 1993, or even Dave Winfield’s extra-inning double that helped the Blue Jays beat Atlanta for the 1992 title. But for a hit that occurred outside of the World Series, Springer’s hit was tremendously impactful.
A statistic called championship winning probability aggregate (cWPA), published by Baseball Reference, measures how much a particular play increased or decreased a team’s chances of winning that year’s World Series. That’s based on when it happened in the game and when that game happened in the overall context of the season.
Springer’s home run increased Toronto’s chances of winning the World Series by 19.73%. It ranks as one of the 10 most important plays outside of the World Series since 1903. Here’s the full list:
10. Chris Chambliss, New York Yankees (1976)
Chris Chambliss’ solo home run in the bottom of the ninth gave the New York Yankees a 7-6 victory over Kansas City in Game 5 of the 1976 American League Championship Series. (18.77% cWPA)
The LCS was best-of-five before 1985, so this Chambliss home run was a win in a winner-take-all game. It also sparked a crowd scene when fans invaded the Yankee Stadium field. Baseball Reference’s cWPA data puts Chambliss’ drive just ahead of a similar home run by the Yankees’ Aaron Boone in Game 7 of the American League Championship Series 27 years later.
9. Cecil Cooper, Milwaukee Brewers (1982)
Cecil Cooper’s two-run single in the seventh put the Milwaukee Brewers up 4-3 against the California Angels in Game 5 of the 1982 American League Championship Series. (19.66%)
That 4-3 lead held to give Milwaukee the pennant in a series that California led 2-0 at one point. The Angels also blew a 3-1 lead in the 1986 American League Championship Series.
8. George Springer, Toronto Blue Jays (2025)
(Photo by Mark Blinch/Getty Images)
Springer’s three-run homer in the bottom of the seventh gave Toronto a 4-3 lead over Seattle in Game 7 of the 2025 American League Championship Series. (19.73%)
Like Cooper’s hit, Springer’s drive turned a deficit into a lead in the seventh inning of a winner-take-all LCS game. Give Springer bonus points for erasing a multi-run deficit.
7. Manny Trillo, Philadelphia Phillies (1980)
Manny Trillo’s two-run triple with two outs in the top of the eighth gave the Philadelphia Phillies a 7-5 lead against the Houston Astros in Game 5 of the 1980 National League Championship Series. (19.79%)
This two-run lead didn’t actually hold. Houston tied the game, but the Phillies ultimately won 8-7 in 10. So those two runs were huge.
6. Jack Clark, St. Louis Cardinals (1985)
Jack Clark’s three-run homer with two outs in the top of the ninth gave the St. Louis Cardinals a 7-5 lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 6 of the 1985 National League Championship Series. (19.83%)
The Dodgers threw to Clark with first base open and he made them pay. This is the only play on this list that wasn’t in a winner-take-all game, but it sent the Cardinals to the World Series when they were one out away from Game 7.
5. Yadier Molina, St. Louis Cardinals (2006)
(Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)
Yadier Molina’s two-run homer in the top of the ninth gave St. Louis a 3-1 lead over the New York Mets in Game 7 of the 2006 National League Championship Series. (20.71%)
After a spectacular catch by New York’s Endy Chavez off the left field wall early in the game, Molina sent this ball well beyond. The Cardinals held off a New York comeback in the bottom of the inning to win the pennant.
4. Rick Monday, Los Angeles Dodgers (1981)
Rick Monday’s solo home run in the top of the ninth that gave the Dodgers a 2-1 lead over the Montreal Expos in Game 5 of the 1981 National League Championship Series. (21.18%)
This home run, with two outs, is slightly ahead of Molina’s with one out. Both contributed the final score of the game.
3. Johnny Bench, Cincinnati Reds (1972)
(Photo by © Bettmann/CORBIS/Bettmann Archive)
Johnny Bench’s solo home run in the bottom of the ninth for the Cincinnati Reds tied Game 5 of the 1972 National League Championship Series at 3 against Pittsburgh. (22.52%)
The Pirates were three outs away from the World Series, but those never came. Bench led off with this drive to the opposite field, and Cincinnati would score the pennant-winning run on a wild pitch later in that inning.
2. Bobby Thomson, New York Giants (1951)
Bobby Thomson’s three-run homer in the bottom of the ninth gave the New York Giants a 5-4 victory over the Brooklyn Dodgers in the third game of a 1951 National League pennant playoff series. (35.56%)
Thomson’s “Shot Heard ‘Round The World” was not technically a postseason play because the playoff playoffs have been considered part of the regular season. Still, this was a winner-take-all game for a berth in the World Series, and Thomson’s team went from trailing by two runs to winning with a legendary swing.
1. Francisco Cabrera, Atlanta Braves (1992)
Francisco Cabrera’s two-run single with two outs in the bottom of the ninth gave the Atlanta Braves a 3-2 victory over Pittsburgh in Game 7 of the 1992 National League Championship Series. (36.84%)
Cabrera remains one of baseball’s most unlikely heroes, having made just 11 plate appearances during the 1992 regular season. He’s just ahead of Thomson. Although Thomson’s hit erased a larger deficit, Cabrera’s hit came with two outs while Thomson’s hit came with just one.
Information from The Associated Press.
Want great stories delivered straight to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports accountAnd follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter every day!
