By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
Cryptocurrency market seeks to regain upward traction with bitcoin trying to exceed $110,000. The CoinDesk 20 index is up over 1% in the last 24 hours along with double-digit gains in a few select tokens such as HYPE, KHYPE, and XMR.
Sentiment on social media remains bullish, thanks to expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points next week, continuing the so-called liquidity easing cycle. Still, it is worth noting that the Dollar Index continues to show bullish price action. A strengthening dollar could limit the rise of BTC.
Risk indicators such as the iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) and the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) are also unsupportive. Both have recently penetrated key support levels. (See TA section). Meanwhile, key volume studies point to underlying weakness in the bitcoin market.
Together, these factors validate the persistent selling bias in BTC options featured in Deribit and Standard Chartered’s short-term bearish outlook.
The founders of newsletter service LondonCryptoClub said recent strains on bank funding and liquidity tightening are “keeping BTC anchored and negatively impacting underlying risk dynamics.” Still, they added that the bull run is far from over, pointing to lower bond yields and economic slowdown risks as catalysts for aggressive Fed easing that could cause a “meltdown.”
In traditional markets, oil rose 4% on both sides of the Atlantic after the United States imposed sanctions on major Russian suppliers Rosneft and Lukoil over the Ukraine war. Increased volatility in the oil market could lead to risk aversion. Stay alert!
What to watch
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- October 23, 9am: Binance Square hosts an AMA on “how early-stage projects grow, build communities, and navigate their Alpha journey.”
- Macro
- October 23, 8:30 a.m.: Due to the federal government shutdown, the U.S. Department of Labor is not releasing its usual weekly initial and rolling unemployment claims reports.
- Oct. 23, 10 a.m.: US September existing home sales estimate 4.1 million.
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
symbolic events
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- SSV DAO is voting to amend DIP-31, refocusing SSV 2.0 on Compose, a protocol that enables cross-atomic transactions to reduce L2 fragmentation and advance SSV beyond distributed validation technology. Voting ends on October 23.
- Unlock
- October 23: Soon (SOON) will unlock 4.52% of its circulating supply worth $12.4 million.
- Token releases
- October 23: DFDV common shareholders will receive a guaranteed dividend.
- October 23: Venice (VVV) will reduce its token supply inflation from 10 million/year to 8 million/year.
Conferences
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
symbolic talk
By Francisco Rodríguez
- Jupiter’s native token JUP is up more than 3% in the past 24 hours after the decentralized exchange posted strong growth in key trading metrics in the third quarter.
- The Solana-based project is also pushing to launch its own prediction market and stablecoin.
- Quarterly revenue rose 19.2% to $45.8 million, while trading volume, driven by spot and perpetual products, rose 71% to $242.8 billion.
- The fees generated reached $121.5 million, almost 48% more than in the second quarter. Despite the growth, JUP’s market capitalization fell 1.5% to $1.35 billion.
- Jupiter attributed the growth to the launch of new products, including its Ultra v3 trading engine and a lending protocol that the team says is one of the fastest growing on Solana. Active wallets increased 5% to 8.4 million, and total value locked (TVL) increased 41.7% to $3.4 billion.
- JUP outperformed the broader crypto market, which rose 1.6% based on the performance of the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index.
Derivatives positioning
- Open interest (OI) in HYPE futures increased by 17% in 24 hours, reaching a two-week high of 40.24 million HYPE. The rise, which comes alongside a rising price and positive funding rates, indicates growing demand for leveraged bullish exposure.
- The OI in BTC and ETH is little changed, a sign that traders are reluctant to place bets ahead of Friday’s US CPI release.
- Volmex’s BVIV, which measures 30-day annualized implied volatility in BTC, has retreated slightly to 50%, but remains well above September’s low of 35%. The elevated level reflects lingering concerns arising from new risks such as automatic deleveraging and liquidity issues.
- Funding rates for major cryptocurrencies continue to hover near zero, in a sign of balanced market conditions. The rates of XMR and BNB are slightly negative, indicating a bias towards bearish short positions.
- In Deribit, the flows presented BTC sales differentials. In general, put options continue to trade at a premium to call options.
Market movements
- BTC is up 1.63% since 4 pm ET on Wednesday to $109,459.82 (24 hours: +1.74%)
- ETH is up 2.92% to $3,892.29 (24 hours: +2.05%)
- CoinDesk 20 rose 2.57% to 3,602.20 (24 hours: +1.59%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate Up 3 Basis Points to 2.86%
- BTC funding rate is 0.0038% (4.1303% annualized) on Binance
- DXY rises 0.15% to 99.04
- Gold futures rise 1.73% to $4,135.80
- Silver futures rise 2.22% to $48.74
- The Nikkei 225 closed down 1.35% at 48,641.61
- Hang Seng closed up 0.72% at 25,967.98
- The FTSE rises 0.43% to 9,555.49
- The Euro Stoxx 50 rises 0.21% to 5,650.92
- The DJIA closed Wednesday down 0.71% at 46,590.41
- The S&P 500 closed down 0.53% at 6,699.40
- Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.93% at 22,740.40
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.32% at 29,982.98
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.49% at 2,894.55
- The 10-year US Treasury rate rises 4 basis points to 3.993%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures little changed at 6,738.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures little changed at 25,057.25
- The E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average index fell 0.24% to 46,672.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 59.79% (-0.12%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03557 (0.57%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1116 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $47.17
- Total fees: 2.89 BTC / $312,945
- CME Futures Open Interest: 142,385 BTC
- BTC valued in gold: 26 oz
- BTC market capitalization against gold: 7.34%
Technical analysis
- The iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) recently broke out of an uptrend line, indicating renewed dominance by sellers.
- The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) extended range play has resolved bearishly.
- These breakdowns suggest the possibility of widespread risk aversion in the future.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Wednesday at $320.33 (-5.4%), +0.94% at $323.33 in premarket
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $124.79 (-3.9%), +1.69% at $126.90
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $37.34 (-12.88%), +1.23% to $37.80
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $52.63 (-8.1%), +1.48% to $53.41
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $19.15 (-4.58%), +1.36% at $19.41
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $18.99 (-8.13%), +1.21% to $19.22
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.8 (-7.44%), +2.36% to $18.22
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $16.86 (-10.18%), +2.43% to $17.27
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): Closed at $51.32 (-8.37%), +2.81% at $52.76
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $23.28 (-5.67%)
Crypto treasury companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $280.81 (-6.99%), +2.3% at $287.28
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $22.53 (-4.17%)
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $13.44 (-6.28%), +2.16% to $13.73
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $4.75 (-6.68%), +3.79% to $4.93
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.86 (-4.62%), +6.99% at $1.99
ETF Flows
BTC Spot ETF:
- Daily net flows: -$101.4 million
- Accumulated net flows: 61,840 million dollars
- Total BTC holdings ~1.35 million
ETH Spot ETF:
- Daily net flows: -$18.9 million
- Accumulated net flows: $14.59 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~6.78 million
Source: Farside Investors
while you were sleeping
