The cryptocurrency market was boosted by a softer-than-expected CPI print, with bitcoin rising back above $110,000 as ether falls back towards $4,000.
Positive investor sentiment appears to be strongly aligned with bitcoin, with CoinMarketCap’s “altcoin season” indicator hitting its lowest level in over 90 days, as bitcoin dominance continues to rise.
Derivatives positioning
By Jacob José
- Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility, as measured by the Volmex BVIV index, has decreased from 52% to 45% in two days, partially recovering the peak experienced on October 10. This decline indicates an easing of market anxiety along with a similar reset on Wall Street.
- Deribit options data shows that BTC’s seven-day volatility risk premium (VRP) has turned negative, a sign of renewed calm.
- The dealer’s gamma profile points to positive gamma accumulation from strikes from $112,000 to $120,000. This means that traders trade against the market in this range, stopping price volatility.
- Broadly speaking, BTC puts continue to trade at a premium to calls across all time frames, reflecting lingering fears of downside and call option overwriting, especially at the long end of the curve.
- ETH options show optimism beyond December expiration.
- Open interest (OI) in perpetual futures pegged to most major tokens has increased over the past 24 hours. Leading the pack are PUMP futures, with an OI gain of over 14%. Strong capital inflows into non-serious tokens often precede market corrections.
- Funding rates for TRX and ZEC have turned slightly negative, indicating a bias towards bearish short positions. In the case of ZEC, traders with long exposure in the spot market could hedge the same with short futures bets.
symbolic talk
By Oliver Knight
- CoinMarketCap’s “altcoin season” index has fallen below 25/100 for the first time in the last 90 days, as it moves into “bitcoin season.”
- The drop reflects worsening sentiment across the altcoin market, with assets such as FET, 2Z, BONK, and WIF losing more than 50% of their value in the past three months.
- Bitcoin dominance has also increased from 57% to 59% since September 13, a sign that investors are avoiding speculative altcoin bets in favor of bitcoin, which has remained stubbornly between $100,000 and $126,000 since July.
- Meanwhile, altcoins fell victim to a sell-off cascade earlier this month, when a sell-off triggered exaggerated drawdowns, wiping out order book liquidity in the process.
- While some have recovered from the sell-off, many remain at critical support levels to create a bearish market structure.
- This despite a wave of digital asset treasury (DAT) companies investing in altcoins throughout 2025, and a lack of retail demand failing to maintain consistent momentum.
