Bitcoin The rally has lost momentum since June, leaving prices largely range-bound above $100,000. This has emboldened some analysts who believe in bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle, warning that a tough bear market could be ahead.
However, a longer-term indicator offers a glimmer of hope for bulls: the 200-week simple moving average (SMA), currently around $54,750, which is still significantly below BTC’s 2021 cycle peak of around $70,000, according to data source TradingView.
You may be wondering why this is important. Well, that’s because previous bull markets have tended to end when the 200-week SMA rises to meet or challenge the previous cycle’s high price. This happened in late 2017 and late 2021-early 2022.
As of now, given that the 200-week SMA is still well below the 2021 price peak, the historical pattern suggests that bitcoin could still be in its broader bull market phase despite the recent short-term weakness.
As exciting as this “hopium” is for bulls, it’s important to remember that it has only developed twice in bitcoin’s relatively short decade of history and during years when institutional participation was extremely low.
Therefore, drawing firm conclusions based solely on this data may seem limited, especially in the eyes of stock investors who rely on decades of market data to identify consistent patterns.
