This is a technical analysis post by CoinDesk analyst and chartered market technician Omkar Godbole.
bitcoin Traders open the monthly candlestick chart, which is waving the white flag of indecision like never before, and the October candlestick says it all.
The October candle represents a huge trading range, from about $103,600 to over $126,000. That’s a larger margin than the previous three months combined! However, BTC ended October down a modest 3.8%. When prices swing wildly but end the period in question close to where it began, it is what some traders call an “indecision candle.”
A bull would see this as base building – a moment of calm before the next big jump. This is possible because the current BTC bull run since early 2023 has been a classic “staggered” rally. Additionally, BTC highs historically tend to form sharp, inverted V-shaped burst moves. So perhaps it is gaining bullish strength. But there is a problem.
This indecision occurs at a key point: the trend line connecting bitcoin’s all-time highs of 2017 and 2021. All-time highs are where buyers usually flex muscles, but right now they are hesitating. And the monthly MACD histogram, an indicator used to measure trend strength and changes, confirms this slowdown in bullish momentum as it produces smaller peaks above zero instead of new highs.
Notably, last month’s new price high did not get the MACD’s blessing, creating a bearish divergence that echoes warnings seen at previous highs, such as the famous 2021 high.
Add to that the fact that this uncertainty persists despite bullish news like Fed rate cuts and improved US-China trade relations, and the case for the bulls starts to look shaky.
And if that weren’t enough, bitcoin’s sense of stagnation right now mirrors the indecision we’re seeing in the US Dollar Index (DXY) after its own major downtrend. The DXY appears poised for a turnaround and could soon rally, historically putting pressure on bitcoin’s rally.
Where does that leave us? If momentum is fading and buyers are unable to overcome resistance, BTC could see a pullback to around $100,000 or lower before attempting the next big move. On the contrary, a fresh move above $116,000 would be needed to reconsider the bullish outlook.
