US exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded inflows of $240 million on Thursday, marking the first day of positive flows since October 28, according to data from Farside.
No capital outflows were reported from any ETF provider, ending a six-day streak of consecutive outflows. The longest stretch of capital outflows since the ETFs launched remains eight consecutive trading days, a pattern that has historically coincided with market or local lows for bitcoin.
Since the US government shutdown began on October 1, ETF flows have been mostly negative, apart from the first week of October, when bitcoin briefly rose from $114,000 to $126,000. Since then, persistent outflows have aligned with bitcoin’s decline to $100,000. The asset is now down 11% from the close, while the Nasdaq and gold are up 2% and 4%, respectively.
As the shutdown continues, it is expected to further erode market confidence and increase the risk of reduced liquidity, which will likely dampen investor appetite for risky assets like bitcoin. Notably, the 2018-2019 government shutdown coincided with a bitcoin market bottom in that cycle.
According to prediction platform Polymarket, there is currently around a 50% chance that the government shutdown will be extended beyond November 16, a scenario that could continue to weigh on bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
The current Bitcoin correction, which began on October 6, has seen a 21% drop in 31 days. For comparison, the correction during the April tariff-driven sell-off lasted 79 days and resulted in a 32% drop.
