bitcoin remains only marginally positive year-to-date, suggesting that 2025 has been a period of consolidation as the asset stabilizes around the $100,000 level.
Much of the recent price weakness appears to be related to previously dormant coins re-entering circulation, according to on-chain data.
Large holders, commonly known as whales, have been the main distributors, driving the current downward pressure on prices, according to Glassnode’s The Accumification Trend Score (ATS).
ATS measures the relative accumulation or distribution behavior between different cohorts of wallets, taking into account both the size of the entities and the volume of coins they have acquired in the last 15 days.
- A value close to 1 suggests that participants in that cohort are actively accumulating.
- A value close to 0 indicates that they are distributing shares.
- Exchanges, miners, and some other entities are excluded from the calculation.
Whales with over 10,000 BTC have been consistent sellers since August, marking three months of sustained distribution. Meanwhile, wallets in the 1,000 to 10,000 BTC range remain neutral around a score of 0.5, while all smaller cohorts (below 1,000 BTC) are firmly in accumulation mode, according to Glassnode data.
While in the first four months of the year, all cohorts were in deep distribution, which contributed to bitcoin’s 30% drop to $76,000 in April during the so-called tariff tantrum.
This data highlights a clear divide between the whales and the rest of the market participants and, for now, it appears that the whales still control the price action.
