Major support at $0.155 collapsed under heavy selling pressure, but improving exchange flows and accelerating whale accumulation suggest downward exhaustion may be approaching.
News background
• DOGE fell from $0.160 to $0.149, breaking the main support at $0.155
• Net foreign exchange inflows turned positive for the first time in months, a historic precursor to relief rallies.
• Analysts point to possible DOGE ETF Section 8(a) approval window within the next seven days
• Whale accumulation amounts to 4.72 billion DOGE ($770 million) in two weeks despite falling prices.
• The broader crypto market remains mired in extreme fear, with sentiment at its lowest level since April
Crypto markets continue to deteriorate as Bitcoin’s “Death Cross” and risk-off conditions pressure altcoins. However, DOGE currency flow dynamics turned positive, a structural change that historically appears near market lows. Analyst Alí Martínez points out that similar turning points preceded reversible capitulation phases in previous cycles.
Price Action Summary
Dogecoin plunged 7.42% over the 24-hour session, collapsing from $0.160 to $0.149 in a breakout that broke the critical $0.155 support that anchored the previous consolidation range. Volume jumped 18.39% above weekly averages, confirming institutional participation rather than retail panic.
The sell-off marked a clear violation of the previous bull cycle’s 0.5 Fibonacci retracement and took the price directly to the lower boundary of DOGE’s one-year descending triangle. The decline extended through multiple intraday bottoms before stabilizing near $0.149-$0.151. Oversold conditions emerged as the RSI built a bullish divergence against new price lows, while the MACD’s short-lived death crosses hinted at an exhaustion in the bearish momentum.
Technical analysis
Dogecoin now sits at a high-risk intersection between breakout confirmation and reversal potential. The collapse below $0.155 completes the resolution of the descending triangle, which traditionally projects a continuation towards the $0.145-$0.140 zone. However, signs to the contrary are accumulating.
Whale accumulation has intensified materially, with high-value wallets absorbing more than 4.7 billion DOGE as the price fell, a sign of strong hands intervening against weak retail flows. At the same time, net foreign exchange inflows have turned positive for the first time in months, a structural change that previously preceded trading lows.
Momentum indicators support this divergence: the RSI continues to rise even as the price makes lower lows, and bearish MACD signals are quickly fading. This creates a mixed but increasingly interesting setup where technical collapse collides with early reversal signals based on on-chain behavior.
DOGE price is likely to remain compressed between the support at $0.149 and the resistance at $0.158 until ETF catalysts or macro sentiment provide decisive momentum.
What traders should keep in mind
Traders face a binary setup shaped by both regulatory catalysts and technical inflections:
• DOGE Section 8(a) ETF Deadline Monday: Surprise Approval Could Trigger Immediate Price Revision
• Recovery of $0.155: essential to reverse the collapse and reopen the path to $0.162-$0.165
• Failure at $0.150: exposes a rapid continuation towards demand zones of $0.115-0.085
• Direction of exchange flows: the continuity of positive net inflows would strengthen the reversal thesis
• Macro Sentiment: Extreme fear in BTC and altcoins can produce strong relief moves, but also increases breakout risk.
The risk/reward setup becomes very favorable for directional traders as DOGE approaches the cusp of a multi-year structure while ETF catalysts converge with on-chain accumulation dynamics.
