By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
The cryptocurrency market remains choppy, with the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) little changed over 24 hours and bitcoin price consolidating above $90,000. Sounds boring, right?
But this price action actually validates the oversold conditions signaled by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on Tuesday, when BTC first explored lows below $90,000. On the same day, CoinDesk noted that the RSI reading needs validation from those signature doji candles (the ones with lower wicks) that tell you that sellers could be losing control.
Guess what? Those clues appeared in the form of consecutive daily candlesticks with long lower wicks (see TA section), indicating that the bears failed to sustain prices below $90,000. Coupled with the oversold RSI, it appears that the downtrend is running out of fuel.
The timing of this signal couldn’t be more interesting, because the much-delayed US nonfarm payrolls data for September will be released later today.
It’s certainly old news. Additionally, the Labor Department has said it will not release the October report, which could deepen the division at the Federal Reserve over interest rate cuts. But while there is a high probability that the market will ignore this figure, the cryptocurrency market right now is battered and bruised, hungry for good news.
Market sentiment is crushed, fear is rampant and bitcoin is already down 30% from its all-time high of $126,000. Investors are camped on the bearish side and have reduced expectations of a Fed rate cut to 30% from 98% a month ago.
This is precisely the scenario in which good news (a massively weak payrolls data boosting bets on a rate cut, for example) can trigger a brief contraction and rally. So, with all of these pieces in place, don’t be surprised if we see some bullish volatility lighting up the market.
In other key news worth noting, Ripple executives are openly discussing the possibility of introducing native staking on the XRP Ledger to expand XRP’s role in DeFi.
Base co-founder Jesse Pollak announced on X that his personal token, JESSE, will be launched on the Base app, expanding the layer 2 ecosystem.
In traditional markets, the yen continued to weaken against the dollar even as domestic government bond yields rose, a sign of fiscal stress being reflected in currency markets. Traders are watching for signs that the Bank of Japan could intervene to stop the currency’s decline. Stay alert.
Read more: For an analysis of current activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to watch
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Macro
- November 20, 8:30 am: Canada October PPI. Overall year-on-year (previous 5.5%), month-on-month (estimated 0.3%).
- November 20, 8:30 am: Estimated Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for November. -3.1.
- November 20, 8:30 am: The delayed September US jobs report is expected to be released.
- Nov. 20, 10 a.m.: US October existing home sales estimate 4.08 million.
- Nov. 20, 11 a.m.: Federal Reserve Governor Lisa D. Cook’s speech on “Financial Stability.” Watch live.
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- November 20: Webull (BULL), post-market, $0.02.
symbolic events
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- Unlock
- unlocks 7.29% of its circulating supply worth $25.71 million.
- unlocks 2.97% of its circulating supply.
- Token releases
Conferences
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is up 1.5% as of 4 pm ET Wednesday to $91,891.98 (24 hours: +0.48%)
- ETH is up 0.69% to $3,009.62 (24 hours: -2.6%)
- CoinDesk 20 rose 1.79% to 2,950.83 (24 hours: -0.55%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 9 basis points to 2.86%
- BTC funding rate is 0.0073% (8.0088% annualized) on Binance
- DXY remains unchanged at 100.18
- Gold futures fall 0.52% to $4,061.70
- Silver futures down 0.38% to $50.66
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 2.65% at 49,823.94
- Hang Seng closed unchanged at 25,835.57
- The FTSE rises 0.72% to 9,575.42
- The Euro Stoxx 50 rises 0.94% to 5,594.21
- The DJIA closed Wednesday up 0.10% at 46,138.77
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.38% at 6,642.16
- Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.59% at 22,564.23
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.81% at 30,278.41
- S&P 40 Latin America closed unchanged at 3,070.06
- The 10-year US Treasury rate rises 0.8 basis points to 4.139%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures rise 1.09% to 6,734.25
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures rise 1.42% to 25,072.00
- The E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average index rises 0.54% to 46,458.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 59.29% (+0.01%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03278 (-0.81%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,070 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $38.22
- Total fees: 3.33 BTC / $302,253
- CME Futures Open Interest: 133,250 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 22.6 oz.
- BTC market capitalization against gold: 6.14%
Technical analysis
- The chart shows the daily BTC price action in candlestick format with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) in the bottom panel.
- Consecutive daily candles with long tails (wicks) indicate that the bears failed to sustain prices below $90,000.
- This, along with the oversold reading on the RSI, suggests room for a price rebound.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Wednesday at $257.29 (-1.72%), +1.83% to $261.99 in premarket
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $69.72 (-8.98%), +1.31% to $70.63
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $25.76 (+0.7%), +3.45% to $26.65
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $36.39 (-3.63%), +0.85% at $36.70
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $11.1 (-6.57%), +3.60% at $11.50
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.35 (-4.23%), +3% to $13.75
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $15.39 (-0.26%), +7.47% to $16.54
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.22 (-5.46%), +4.11% to $10.64
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $40.4 (-3.42%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $14.48 (-7.48%)
Crypto treasury companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $186.5 (-9.82%), +2.7% at $191.54
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $19.73 (-8.28%)
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $9.87 (-6.45%), +2.84% to $10.15
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $2.69 (-7.72%), +8.18% to $2.91
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.78 (-7.77%)
ETF Flows
BTC Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: $75.4 million
- Accumulated net flows: $58.28 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.32 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: -$37.4 million
- Accumulated net flows: $12.86 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~6.25 million
Source: Farside Investors
while you were sleeping
