Bitcoin is showing one of the deepest momentum breaks of the cycle, with several on-chain indicators now printing signals last seen during the industry’s most violent busts.
Glassnode data shows realized losses have risen to levels comparable to the November 2022 capitulation around the FTX collapse. The rise is being driven almost entirely by short-term holders, a colloquial term for portfolios they bought in the last 90 days, and unwinding on a large scale as BTC extends its decline below the 200-day moving average.
The dominance of short-term realized losses is typical of market stress, but this week’s magnitude stands out. The current group is the largest since early 2023, and one of the few in the last five years to reach a daily run rate between $600 million and $1 billion.
Market structure indicators tell a similar story. Independent analyst MEKhoko noted that BTC is now trading more than 3.5 standard deviations below its 200-day moving average.
That type of displacement has occurred only three times in the last decade: November 2018, the March 2020 pandemic crisis, and June 2022 during the Three Arrows Capital/Luna crisis.
btcusd is beyond 3.5 standard deviations from its 200dma
other occasions:
November 2018
March 2020
June 2022— mekhoko (@MEKhoko) November 20, 2025
This week’s decline coincides with the same pattern of behavior: a strong expansion in spot sales, the collapse of financing rates and a measurable withdrawal of marginal buyers who previously relied on momentum.
With BTC now deeply stretched below trend, short-term holders weakened, and sentiment trapped in extreme fear, market positioning is approaching levels historically associated with short-term lows.
But without a clear macro catalyst, traders warn that volatility around these levels is likely to remain elevated.
