BELÉM:
Pakistan’s rooftop solar generation will exceed daytime power demand on parts of the national grid next year, a senior government official told Reuters, marking a significant shift driven by a record boom in solar installations and a rapid decline in grid consumption.
The growth has reduced emissions and electricity bills for some consumers, but has also intensified financial pressure on indebted power companies. Prolonged declines in network-based demand have weakened revenue at a time when the sector is already grappling with structural losses.
Speaking on the sidelines of the COP30 climate conference in Brazil, Aisha Moriani, secretary of the Ministry of Climate Change, said the country would experience “negative grid-connected demand during certain hours of the day because behind-the-meter solar is completely offsetting grid consumption.”
While regions in Europe and Australia occasionally record negative electricity prices due to solar oversupply, Pakistan would become one of the first large emerging markets where rooftop generation exceeds grid-connected demand for prolonged periods in key industrial areas.
Lahore, which has one of the highest rooftop solar penetration rates in Pakistan, is expected to be the first major city to see negative daytime demand. They are likely to be followed by Faisalabad and Sialkot, where industrial areas have rapidly adopted solar panels, Moriani said.
Power shortages and repeated tariff increases have led many of Pakistan’s 250 million people to turn to solar energy. The country has become the world’s third-largest importer of solar panels, and solar’s share of its electricity mix now surpasses that of neighboring China.
Moriani, Pakistan’s chief negotiator at COP30, said negative demand events would be more frequent during bright summer afternoons, industrial holidays and days with moderate temperatures, when solar production remains high but cooling needs remain low.
He added that Pakistan’s main challenge was not the pace of renewable energy growth but the speed at which the grid, regulatory structures and market design could adjust. The government is planning new tariffs for large solar users and revised tariff structures to ensure companies with rooftop systems contribute to the costs of maintaining the grid.
Demand for grid-connected electricity in Pakistan is expected to rise by 3% to 4% this year, slower than long-term averages. Consumption may rise more sharply next year, but the increase could be slowed by the continued growth of rooftop solar, Moriani said.
The rise in solar energy adoption has also influenced Pakistan’s liquefied natural gas strategy. Moriani said the country had begun renegotiating LNG contracts with major supplier Qatar and canceling cargoes previously supplied by Italy’s Eni, seeking more flexible delivery schedules and lower prices.
While there were no formal negotiations with Qatar at COP30, Moriani said the conference created a “diplomatic space for engagement with energy ministers and trade representatives.”
He added that Pakistan’s priority was to align gas import plans with fiscal constraints, demand projections and seasonal trends. “Pakistan seeks stability and affordability, not expanding dependence on LNG,” he said.
