By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
The new week doesn’t start on the brightest note. bitcoin is already retreating from its weekend bounce, falling to $86,000 from around $88,000. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) is also feeling the cold, falling to 2,758 points from its weekend high of 2,816.
BTC has been on a tough four-week losing streak, marked by institutional capitulation. What’s next? Sell-offs like this often shake investor confidence, which doesn’t recover overnight. That makes a quick rebound back to $100,000 or more by the end of the year quite unlikely.
You can tell what the mood is from the comments of analysts, who mostly avoid clear directional opinions.
“In the short term, a bounce is very likely, but if we decline again and lose the $80,000 level, the probability of facing a much more difficult period becomes significantly higher,” CryptoQuant said in a post on X.
A rebound cannot be ruled out because a US interest rate cut in December is back on the table, with traders now assigning a 75% chance of a reduction after dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials late last week. These odds could increase if this week’s US data (producer price index, retail sales, GDP and PCE) indicate cooling inflation and slower growth.
“For cryptocurrencies, the macro delta is simple: Easing prints would reduce real returns and likely draw back marginal buyers; persistent inflation or hawkish commentary would keep liquidity in risk assets limited. Expect headline-driven volatility around these releases,” said Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, in an email.
That said, here’s a quick reminder for those hoping for Fed-driven booms like the one in 2020-21. The game has changed. As financial strategist Russell Napier said, the post-Covid world is characterized by “fiscal dominance/state capitalism”, where governments, not central banks, lead the charge to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio.
In this new configuration, governments leverage control over commercial banks and policy tools to direct liquidity toward economic activities that drive growth and “inflate” debt. This makes assets that benefit from tax spending and store of value attractive among the best investments right now.
This is a big change from the pre-Covid era of Fed dominance, when new money flowed to asset managers first, causing rallies in all corners of the financial markets – the classic Cantillon effect I first explained in 2019!
Investors pinning their hopes solely on the Fed’s stimulus for markets may want to rethink their strategy. Stay alert!
Read more: For an analysis of current activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to watch
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- November 24: Monad public mainnet will launch with the native MON token.
- November 24: Two new crypto spot ETFs, Grayscale Dogecoin Trust ETF (GDOG) and Grayscale XRP Trust ETF (GXRP), are expected to go live on NYSE Arca.
- Macro
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
symbolic events
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- Unlock
- to unlock 4% of its circulating supply worth $10.84 million.
- to unlock 1.89% of its circulating supply worth $6.25 million.
- Token releases
- Monad (MON) will be listed on Kraken, Gate, Bitrue and Indoax.
- Sparkle (SSS) will be listed on Gate.
Conferences
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is up 0.95% as of 4 pm ET on Friday to $86,003.98 (24 hours: -0.3%)
- ETH is up 1.14% to $2,799.37 (24 hours: -0.55%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 2% to 2,753.16 (24 hours: +0.12%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 25 bps to 2.81%
- BTC funding rate is 0.0034% (3.7777% annualized) on Binance
- DXY little changed at 100.09
- Gold futures fall 0.30% to $4,067.20
- Silver futures down 0.22% to $49.81
- The Nikkei 225 closed down 2.40% at 48,625.88
- Hang Seng closed up 1.97% at 25,716.50
- FTSE unchanged at 9,543.30
- Euro Stoxx 50 unchanged at 5,510.71
- DJIA closed Friday up 1.08% at 46,245.41
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.98% at 6,602.99
- Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.88% at 22,273.08
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.85% at 30,160.65
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.24% at 3,036.63
- The 10-year US Treasury rate fell 1.3 basis points to 4.05%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures up 0.25% to 6,636.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures rise 0.47% to 24,419.25
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average unchanged at 46,311.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 59.08% (-0.31%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03252 (0.77%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,039 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $35.59
- Total fees: 2.32 BTC / $200,985
- CME Futures Open Interest: 131,785 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 21.2 oz.
- BTC market capitalization against gold: 5.77%
Technical analysis
- The chart shows daily swings in the price of USDT-denominated Tether gold.
- The XAUT token has marked a triangular consolidation over the past five weeks, marking a pause in the broader uptrend.
- The next move depends on the direction in which the triangular consolidation resolves. A bullish breakout would mean the resumption of the broader rally, while a bearish breakout would signal a change from bullish to bearish trend.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN) closed Friday at $240.41, (+0.96%), +2.16% to $245.60 in pre-market
- Circle Internet (CRCL) closed at $71.33, (+6.53%), +0.71% at $71.84
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY) closed at $23.42, (-2.37%), +2.95% at $24.11
- MARA Holdings (MARA) closed at $10.07, (-1.76%), +1.39% at $10.21
- Riot Platforms (RIOT) closed at $12.71, (-0.67%), +2.2% at $12.99
- Core Scientific (CORZ) closed at $14.73, (-2.77%), +1.83% at $15
- CleanSpark (CLSK) closed at $9.73 (-2.84%), +5.14% at $10.23
- The CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI) closed at $38.04 (-1.91%)
- The Exodus Movement (EXOD) closed at $14.65, (+3.03%)
Crypto treasury companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $170.50 (-3.74%), -5.41% at $167.55, +1.07% at $172.32
- Semler Scientific (SMLR) closed at $19.03 (+3.36%)
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $9.52 (+2.37%), +1.58% to $9.67
- Upexi Inc (UPXI) closed at $2.52, (+2.43%), +3.17% at $2.60
- Lite Strategy (LITS) closed at $1.70 (+0.59%)
ETF Flows
BTC Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: $238.4 million
- Accumulated net flows: $57.62 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.31 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: $55.7 million
- Accumulated net flows: $12.65 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~6.13 million
Source: Farside Investors
while you were sleeping
