This is a technical analysis post by CoinDesk analyst and chartered market technician Omkar Godbole.
Payment-focused cryptocurrency has taken a hit this week, falling more than 6% to $2, a level that has become a decisive line for the Ripple-pegged token.
Since last December, this level has become a zone of bearish fatigue, a place where selling pressure tends to decrease, as indicated by the lower wicks of several weekly candles.
The bottom line: If $2 support gives way, disappointed holders may rush for the exit, causing a prolonged price drop.
For now, prices maintain the support line. For the outlook to turn bullish, prices must break above the descending trend line connecting lower highs since July, which is currently around $2.50.
Talking about bitcoins The leading cryptocurrency remains near what may be the most crucial trio of support ever: an uptrend line that has drawn higher lows through 2023 and 2024, the 100-week simple moving average (SMA), and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the brutal bear market bottom in late 2022 to just over $126,000, the recently reached all-time high.
If that is broken, attention will shift to the April low near $74,500, and then to the 2021 bull market peak just below $70,000. Some traders are already taking action, preparing for BTC below $80,000 in the first days of 2026.
On the upside, BTC bulls need to reclaim the 50-week SMA, the critical lifeline located just above $102,252, if they want to convince the market that the broader bull run is still alive and well.
Nasdaq up?
The task may be easier said than done, as a classic “hanging man” candlestick pattern has emerged on the Nasdaq’s monthly chart, warning of impending weakness. Both BTC and technology stocks tend to move at the same pace most of the time.
The pattern is characterized by a small real body near the top of the candle, a long lower shadow of at least twice the length of the body, and little to no upper shadow, and indicates that selling pressure is emerging and the uptrend may be losing momentum.
When it appears at all-time highs, as in the case of the Nasdaq, it warns of a possible reversal or pause in the bullish movement, suggesting that traders should closely watch for confirmation of a bearish turn in subsequent candles.
So between XRP and bitcoin on these knife-edge supports and the Nasdaq’s uncomfortable top signals, traders have a lot on their plates. Perhaps the Santa Claus rally that both tech stocks and cryptocurrency bulls are counting on won’t come this year.
