Bank of America’s market outlook for 2026 paints a picture of strong global growth, led by AI investment, but warns that volatility could increase as investors begin to understand the full impact of technology on the economy.
The bank’s global research team expects US GDP to grow 2.4% year-on-year by the end of 2026, above consensus, driven by business investment, fiscal stimulus and recent rate cuts. China’s growth is also expected to exceed expectations, with forecasts of 4.7% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027.
But the most important force influencing the bank’s forecasts is artificial intelligence.
Increased AI spending is already lifting GDP and BofA doesn’t see a bubble… yet. “We are bullish on the two most influential economies,” said Candace Browning, head of global research at BofA. “Concerns about an impending AI bubble are overblown.” According to the report, AI-related capital investment is set to expand further next year, supporting what some economists believe could become a new investment cycle.
bitcoin Miners have benefited from the AI boom in 2025, as growing demand for high-performance computing has increased the value of their infrastructure. Several publicly traded mining companies reported increased revenue this year not only from mining, but also from leasing data center capacity to artificial intelligence companies that need power-hungry GPUs.
IREN (IREN) is up 337.15% so far this year, while Cipher Mining (CIFR) is trading almost 300% higher. TeraWulf (WULF) rose 190% during the same period. The gains come even as Bitcoin has failed to break out convincingly this year, continuing to trade around the $90,000 area.
Indeed, markets are shifting from a consumption-driven recovery to one driven by capital spending, infrastructure and productivity. If that shift holds, it could extend beyond traditional stocks and into areas such as digital infrastructure, blockchain and data monetization, domains where crypto projects have risen to prominence.
Still, the bank sees turbulence ahead. As investors and policymakers develop a clearer picture of how AI affects inflation, labor markets and supply chains, financial markets could see wild swings. BofA warns that the current “K-shaped” recovery, in which some sectors soar while others lag, adds complexity to this outlook.
That disconnect could deepen if AI amplifies productivity in technology and finance while leaving slower-moving sectors behind. The result: a two-speed economy that is more difficult to manage with traditional tools. For markets, the risk of mispricing and sudden revaluations increases.
Emerging markets may benefit in the short term, especially if the US dollar weakens and oil prices remain low. BofA notes that these regions are likely to see stronger performance in 2026, helped by global monetary easing. For some developing countries that have dispensed with legacy infrastructures in favor of digital systems, growing demand for AI could create new opportunities for alternative technologies.
Still, the tone of the report is cautiously optimistic. With two Federal Reserve cuts projected for 2026 and fiscal policy still in full swing, the economic backdrop remains favorable, at least for now.
In a year where copper prices are rising due to supply constraints and fiscal expansion, and where S&P earnings are expected to grow 14% despite weak price gains, the market appears primed for change. Whether AI will become a driver of productivity or a source of instability could be one of the defining questions of the next twelve months.
And in that debate, cryptocurrencies (especially in their more infrastructure-focused forms) may have a role to play, even if they are not yet at the center of the conversation.
