Wall Street trader Bernstein maintains his most aggressive Coinbase (COIN) call on the Street, an outperform rating, and a $510 price target, even with a market pullback and a renewed bitcoin. Volatility has shaken sentiment among cryptocurrency-linked stocks.
In a Monday note written by analysts led by Gautam Chhugani, the brokerage described the current setup as “fragile,” with choppy cryptocurrency price action extending to public market substitutes.
But the company’s analysts argued that this slowdown is unlike previous crypto crises because the underlying businesses appear to be holding up and the froth is more concentrated. Bernstein noted that speculative excess is largely limited to “MSTR copycats,” while describing larger, larger-scale players making more lasting changes to the way they monetize the market.
For Coinbase, that change is the core of the bullish thesis. Analysts said the exchange is working to reduce its reliance on spot trading by building an “everything exchange,” something closer to a full financial platform than a single-product crypto venue.
Analysts noted that stablecoins have already become a major contributor to Coinbase’s revenue, but investors often continue to view ancillary businesses, such as staking and custody, as simply another form of crypto beta.
In Bernstein’s view, clearer US regulatory rules are the key catalyst that could requalify those lines, accelerate Coinbase’s expansion and reduce the advantage historically enjoyed by offshore rivals that listed tokens faster and captured fees related to fundraising.
The broker also said that Coinbase is leaning further toward issuance of tokens through a launch pad-style approach, which could generate success fee income while creating a flywheel: more issuances fuel more listings and, ultimately, greater trading activity. Bernstein cited the Monad listing as evidence of demand for that model.
A key catalyst ahead
Another piece of the bull case is a near-term product catalyst: Coinbase’s scheduled product showcase on December 17, which Bernstein hopes to highlight areas that extend the company beyond spot trading, including tokenized stocks and prediction markets.
The firm also pointed to a growing push toward derivatives, helped by Deribit, as a trend that could make Coinbase look more like brokerages like Robinhood (HOOD), with the two models converging as each adds more products traditionally associated with the other.
On the consumer side, the report pointed to Coinbase’s Base app as a potential on-ramp that combines wallet functionality, payments and social features, with broader access to tokens through on-chain integrations.
Altogether, the broker framed Coinbase’s strategy as a pivot from being primarily a spot-driven exchange to a broader distribution and services platform, one that it believes can be compounded through regulation, new issuances, and an increasingly broad product set, even if near-term sentiment remains hostage to cryptocurrency volatility.
Coinbase shares were up 3.7% at press time to $269.42, putting the upside potential for Bernstein’s price target at nearly 90%.
Read more: Investors Should Buy the Dip in Coinbase and Circle, Says William Blair
