Institutional flows surged more than 50% above trend on Wednesday as XRP again failed to break above the $2.09 to $2.10 ceiling. Sellers broke the token’s resistance and forced a clean move back to the psychological $2.00 level, leaving the broader structure stuck in a multi-week squeeze as ETF inflows quietly reduce supply below.
What to know
- XRP fell from $2.09 to $2.00, losing 4.3% on the session and underperforming the broader crypto market by about 1%.
- The rejection was decisive: a volume increase of 172.8 million (205% above the daily average) occurred just as XRP marked $2.08, turning the entire move into a failed breakout. The selloff did not come from retail panic.
- Volume throughout the session was 54% above the 7-day average – a classic institutional distribution above resistance rather than emotional dumping.
- Currency balances fell from 3.95 billion to 2.6 billion tokens in the last 60 days, compressing supply even as the spot price failed to sustain the attempted breakout. That divergence is setting up an increasingly asymmetrical structure as XRP trades in a tightening multi-month triangle.
News background
- US XRP spot ETFs generated over $170 million in weekly inflows, marking another week with zero outflows.
- Strong spot sales continue to reach the $2.09 to $2.10 band, where XRP has failed several times.
- Market makers signaled growing distribution pressure ahead of yesterday’s move, with strong bidding above $2.10.
- Currency supply continues to decline, falling to 2.6 billion tokens, strengthening long-term supply compression.
- Despite the ETF’s support,
Price Action Summary
XRP fell 4.3% from $2.09 → $2.00
• Intraday range: 5.4% as rejection of resistance caused high volatility to ease
• Volume: Peak 172.8 million at 19:00 UTC (205% higher than daily average)
• Multiple rejections between $2.08 and $2.10 created a maximum limit
• Late session stabilization formed higher lows near $1,999–$2,005
• Relative performance: Lagged overall cryptocurrencies by about 1%
Technical analysis
- Support:$2.00 psychological shelf. Below that lies a soft zone at $1.95, aligned with previous demand clusters.
- Resistance: between $2.09 and $2.10 is the dominant wall; The session created a clear shelf of offer here. Any close above $2.10 turns the entire structure bullish in the short term.
- Volume structure: 54% above weekly averages = institutional flows, not noise. The peak of 172.8 million exactly at the failed breakout confirms that aggressive sellers are defending the level.
- Pattern: Triangular compression of several months of adjustment as the exchange supply falls. The price remains in the mid-range; No breakage or damage confirmed.
- Momentum tilted towards the short-term downtrend after a clear rejection. Limited bounce attempts below $2.08 with decreasing volume equal weak follow-through.
What traders are watching.
- Can $2 survive a second test? A clear breakout exposes a quick move towards $1.95.
- ETF inflows remain the biggest offset for spotting weakness – any slowdown removes the floor.
- A breakout requires multiple hourly closes above $2.10 with sustained volume of >100 million.
- The compression is now extremely tight: the next movement should be greater than the previous one.
- Falling exchange balance is the wild card: tighter supply = faster swings once direction is confirmed
