Pakistan’s demographic trajectory presents a formidable double bind: while key indicators such as fertility and growth rates are declining, the sheer number of citizens continues to increase, placing immense and increasing pressure on the country’s infrastructure.
According to new figures released by the US Census Bureau, Pakistan’s population has surpassed approximately 257 million, cementing its status among the world’s most populous nations even as it undergoes a tense demographic transition.
The data highlights a critical phase. The annual population growth rate has slowed to 1.82% and the fertility rate has fallen to 3.25 births per woman. However, with fertility still well above the replacement level of 2.1, absolute growth is assured for a generation.
Economists warn that the heavily youth-driven demographic structure will create increasing pressure on education, housing, transportation and, most importantly, employment during the 2030s and 2040s. Without accelerated job creation and sustained economic growth, they warn, this “youth bulge” could go from being a potential dividend to a source of long-term instability.
Beyond the numbers, the report highlights persistent development deficits. A life expectancy of only 60.5 years and an under-five mortality rate of almost 65 deaths per 1,000 live births indicate chronic weaknesses in maternal health, nutrition and primary health care.
With a population density of 333 people per square kilometer, the pressure on land and public services is severe. Urban centres, where informal settlements are expanding and transport networks are congested, are showing visible tension as infrastructure development “dangerously” lags behind demographic realities.
A regional comparison clarifies the picture. Neighbors India and Bangladesh have reduced fertility to near or below replacement level, combining slower growth with advances in health and education.
On the other hand, Afghanistan, with a fertility rate of more than four births, is an example of how conflict slows down the demographic transition. Pakistan stands at a crucial middle ground: progress is evident, but its pace is insufficient to alleviate near-term pressures.
Globally, population growth is slowing to historic lows, but Pakistan’s path is different. Demographers emphasize that the room for action is shrinking. Without urgent and targeted investment in girls’ education, reproductive health and job creation, the nation risks entering the second half of the century with an aging population and underdeveloped human capital, a combination that could cement prolonged economic stagnation. The demographic clock is ticking and the cost of inaction, analysts conclude, will be measured in lost stability and growth.
