Barclays expects a warmer year for cryptocurrencies in 2026, with trading volumes trending downward and investor enthusiasm declining. In a wide-ranging year-end report released Friday, the bank pointed to a difficult backdrop for digital asset exchanges like Coinbase (COIN), citing unclear catalysts for renewed activity and a slow start to token adoption efforts.
Retail exchanges, which benefited from growing trading interest during the cryptocurrency bull runs of previous years, now face a more subdued environment. Barclays analysts noted that trading volume in spot markets – key revenue drivers for companies like Coinbase and Robinhood (HOOD) – has cooled sharply. Without a clear spark to revive demand, volumes may remain depressed.
“Cryptocurrency spot trading volumes […] “It appears to be trending toward a down year in FY26, and it is not clear to us what could reverse this trend,” the analysts wrote.
Crypto markets tend to move based on big events: policy announcements, product launches, or political changes. Barclays pointed to past bursts of activity such as the March 2024 spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows or the pro-crypto presidential victory in November as key drivers of the short-term spikes. But in the absence of such developments, the bank believes structural growth is lacking.
One area that could shake up the market is regulation. Barclays highlighted the pending CLARITY Act, legislation that would help define the line between digital products and securities and clarify which US agency – the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or the smaller Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) – regulates which assets. While not a guaranteed market driver, the bill could alleviate operational uncertainty for both crypto companies and investors. If approved, it could open the door to clearer product launches, especially in tokenized assets.
Coinbase remains a focal point in Barclays’ analysis. While the company is expanding into derivatives and tokenized equity trading, the bank sees headwinds from declining spot volumes and rising operating costs.
“COIN has a number [of] growth initiatives, as well as recent acquisitions that could begin to have more impact,” the report states. However, the analysts revised their price target for the stock downward to $291, citing a more conservative earnings outlook.
Tokenization continues to attract the attention of traditional and crypto-native financial companies. BlackRock (BLK), Robinhood (HOOD) and others have been testing products in this space. But Barclays warns that the trend is at an early stage and is unlikely to materially affect profits in 2026.
Meanwhile, the US political environment has become more favorable for digital assets following the recent elections. However, Barclays believes that much of this optimism is already priced into the market. Any legislative move, like the CLARITY Act, would have to pass the Senate and survive potential legal challenges before having any practical impact.
In short, 2026 may be a transition year for cryptocurrencies. With retail activity in decline and no immediate tailwinds, companies are focusing on long-term bets like tokenized finance and compliance upgrades. It is still uncertain whether those investments will bear fruit next year or later.
