Veteran trader and chart analyst Peter Brandt has warned that bitcoin The characteristic growth parabola has fractured, opening the door to a brutal fall that could reach $25,000.
Brandt’s decision depends on bitcoin’s exponential decline in bull cycles. Historically, the cryptocurrency has rallied strongly within 12 to 18 months after halving and subsequently fell into a bear market, characterized by a 70% to 80% retracement from all-time highs.
However, each bull cycle has had diminishing returns. For example, after the first halving on November 28, 2012, BTC recorded a 100-fold increase to $1,240 in December 2013. The 2016 halving brought a 74-fold increase and the 2020 halving brought an eight-fold increase.
In the latest post-halving cycle, which began after the quadrennial event in April 2024, prices doubled to an all-time high of $126,000 in October this year. Prices have since retreated to just under $90,000, cutting the parabola curve that has marked massive bullish price trends during every previous cycle.
“The current parabolic advance has been violated. 20% ATH = $25,240,” Brandt said on X.
Brandt lays it out on a logarithmic-scale graph dating back to 2010: four increasingly steepening pink arcs, each charting the manic vertical rise of a cycle. The parabolas do not bend smoothly, but instead accelerate skyward, just like BTC’s history of rapid gains.
Meanwhile, crossovers below that support line have marked the end of the bull runs. The decline from the October highs has done that, stabbing under the fourth arc.
