Pain for cryptocurrency bulls persisted Monday as bitcoin remained markedly lower during afternoon trading in the US amid growing investor uncertainty over the macroeconomic outlook.
Just after the close of US stock trading, bitcoin was down 3% in the last 24 hours to $86,000. ether and sunny all fell more than 5%. Most cryptocurrency stocks showed deeper losses, with Circle (CRCL), Galaxy Digital (GLXY), and Strategy (MSTR) falling more than 8% and Coinbase (COIN) losing 6.4% on Monday. Meanwhile, some stocks fared relatively better amid the carnage, including Bullish (BLSH), which saw a 2.5% loss, and eToro (ETOR), which was down 3.7%.
The cryptocurrency drop comes as traditional markets are only modestly lower: the Nasdaq closed down 0.6% and the S&P 500 fell 0.15%. However, AI-linked stocks such as Broadcom and Oracle continue to reel from last week’s weak earnings results. This sentiment has punished bitcoin miners, many of whom have seen significant benefits from moving their business plans to AI infrastructure. Hut 8 (HUT), CleanSpark (CLSK), Cipher Mining (CIFR), and IREN (IREN) all posted double-digit percentage drops on Monday.
Deciphering the decline
Cryptocurrency trading firm Wintermute flagged signs of fatigue in risk assets, noting that both stocks and digital tokens are “digesting macro uncertainty rather than entering a sustained phase of risk aversion.”
While bitcoin had been trading between $88,000 and $92,000 for more than two weeks, it has now fallen below $86,000, raising questions about whether further declines are likely. “Without evidence of forced selling or sustained deterioration in liquidity, downside moves are more likely to remain orderly rather than disorderly,” Wintermute strategist Jasper De Maere wrote in a Monday note.
A key factor weighing on markets is last week’s Federal Reserve meeting, which delivered a widely expected 25 basis point cut. But forward guidance became markedly cautious, De Maere said, with the Federal Reserve’s new projections showing only one rate cut in all of 2026, a slower pace than many investors had priced in. Markets continue to expect about three cuts next year, leaving a gap between investor positioning and central bank signals.
This mismatch between inflation data and policy expectations is creating a choppy environment for risk assets, he added, especially given the Bank of Japan’s expected rate hike this week and its plans to unwind more than $500 billion in ETF holdings, which have raised concerns about global liquidity and the yen carry trade.
“Selective buying in dips”
Looking ahead, De Maere expects choppy, range-bound trading to continue into early 2026, with no clear trend emerging until more clarity on growth, liquidity and policies is provided. He noted that macroeconomic concerns have dominated markets for months, but there may be room for bottom-up narratives to re-emerge soon, such as the evolution of cryptocurrency regulation in the United States.
He sees no signs of forced selling in cryptocurrencies, meaning any drawdown could remain orderly barring a shock. “Until then, let’s expect wider ranges, choppy price action, and selective buying on dips, rather than a clear trend,” he wrote.
Bitfinex analysts somewhat agree, arguing that the nature of bitcoin’s market structure has fundamentally changed and the famous “four-year cycle” is no longer the dominant driver of price action.
“With annual BTC issuance now below 1%, the influence of the halving has diminished,” Bitfinex analysts wrote in a Monday report. “Reductions since 2024 have been materially smaller, as structural inflows from ETFs, corporations and sovereign-linked entities have absorbed multiples of the annual mined supply.”
They argued that bitcoin is now transitioning to a new phase: one dominated by patient, long-term capital and lower volatility, more akin to gold.
Analysts also noted a historical correlation between gold and bitcoin, noting that BTC often lags gold rallies by 100 to 150 trading days. With gold recovering sharply in 2025, they said Bitcoin could be set to follow suit in the coming months, after a consolidation phase.
Paul Howard, senior director at trading firm Wincent, also projected a more constructive outlook for 2026, but cautioned against expecting fireworks any time soon.
“The 2025 regulatory changes, coupled with the easing of monetary policy, lay a good foundation for the continued development of the cryptoasset class,” Howard said. “But I don’t expect BTC to post new all-time highs this side of Easter.”
