Jurien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity and a long-time bitcoin bull, has become one of the latest financial strategists to become more bearish on bitcoin. citing the asset’s four-year cycle.
Historically, Bitcoin has followed a repeatable pattern and, from both an analog and temporal perspective, the current cycle appears to be aligning closely with previous ones, Timmer maintains.
October’s all-time high near $125,000, reached after roughly 145 months of cumulative recovery, fits well into this framework. Bitcoin bear markets, often called winters, typically last about a year, Timmer says. As a result, he sees 2026 as a potential “off year” for bitcoin following the conclusion of the last halving-driven cycle.
“While I remain a secular bull on bitcoin, my concern is that bitcoin could well have ended another halving phase of the four-year cycle, both in price and time,” Timmer wrote on X.
“If we visually line up all the bull markets, we can see that the October high of $125,000 after 145 months of recovery fits pretty well with what one might expect. Bitcoin winters have lasted about a year, so my feeling is that 2026 could be a late year for Bitcoin. Support is between $65,000 and $75,000.”
Timmer also highlights gold’s strong performance in 2025, comparing it to bitcoin’s negative year, and does not expect a near-term mean reversion between the two assets.
Gold is firmly in a bull market, up about 65% so far this year, outpacing global money supply growth, Timmer noted. He adds that during the recent correction gold has maintained most of its gains, which he considers characteristic behavior of a bull market.
