Looking ahead to 2025, solid money, or debasement trading, was decisively won by metals over bitcoin. Gold had one of its best years on record, rising 65%, while bitcoin is so far down 7%.
Through August, the two assets had similar returns, both up approximately 30%. From that point on, gold rose while bitcoin fell sharply.
This divergence reinforced that gold won the debasement trade narrative leaving Bitcoin firmly behind.
Bitcoin remains in recovery mode after a 36% correction from its October all-time high, struggling in the $80,000 range.
Despite price weakness, capital flows tell a different story.
Bitwise CEO Bradley Duke noted that flows into bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs) surpassed gold ETP flows in 2025 despite gold’s successful year.
The debut of US spot bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 marked the first year of institutional adoption, while the second year saw continued strong participation even as the price did not keep pace.
The most notable takeaway from this current correction in bitcoin is the resilience of ETF investors. Despite a 36% price drop, bitcoin ETF total assets under management (AUM) decreased less than 4%.
Data from Checkonchain shows that US ETFs held 1.37 million BTC at the October peak and still held around 1.32 million on December 19. This suggests that most of the selling did not come from ETF holders. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has increased its dominance during this correction, and now has just under 60% market share with approximately 780,000 BTC under management.
It is clear that bitcoin’s correction was not driven by ETF outflows.
