Lately it has become fashionable to dismiss bitcoins. four-year cycle (and the inevitable boom and bust that comes with it) as an anachronism.
Just last week, Bitwise’s Matt Hougan and ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood strongly supported the idea of scrapping the four-year cycle. Each highlighted ETFs along with the regulatory and institutional acceptance that have integrated bitcoin into the traditional financial system. Bitcoin is no longer a marginal asset and there is no reason for it to follow the same pattern today as it did years ago.
Defining the cycle
The four-year cycle is a price pattern linked to bitcoin halving events, which occur approximately every four years. These halvings reduce the number of bitcoins rewarded for mining a block by 50%. It is believed that the 50% cut will cause a supply shock and force a significant rise in prices.
After the big bullish move there is a drop in the 80% area and then a steady rise until the next halving event.
Chart doodlers like to point to the bull runs (and subsequent declines) that occurred after the halvings of 2012, 2016 and 2020, and say that things are happening the same for the 2024 event: the strong bull run that finally peaked in October 2025 above $125,000, and then the bear market, which is where the market is. now.
Fidelity’s Timmer weighs in
Jurrien Timmer, global macro director at asset management giant Fidelity, an early believer in bitcoin among the traditional financial group, sees nothing in his charts that says the four-year cycle is dead.
“If we visually line up all the bull markets, we can see that the October high of $125,000 after $145 [weeks] recovery fits pretty well with what one might expect,” Timmer said earlier this week.
As for what’s next, it would be winter. Timmer noted that subsequent bear markets tend to last about a year. “My feeling is that 2026 could be a ‘year off’ (or ‘off year’) for bitcoin.” Support, he concluded, is in the range of $65,000 to $75,000.
