bitcoin rose from $88,000 in Asian time to over $90,000 in European afternoon time on Monday, but reasons for caution remain as US markets take over.
BTC has tended to find early support during Asian and European hours in recent weeks, only to fade once US investors return to the market.
That dynamic has turned the US session into a key test of whether rallies can be sustained. Previous pushes above important levels, including $90,000, have often reversed during New York time as coverings are added and profits are taken, often leading to hundreds of millions in liquidations amid the see-saw trading.
Positioning in derivatives shows an accumulation of risk along with the price. Bitcoin futures open interest rose steadily as BTC rose on Monday, hitting $60 billion in major venues, according to data from CoinGlass.
Binance, CME, and Bybit all saw notable increases, suggesting new leverage entering the market rather than solely short covering.
That dynamic has become familiar in recent weeks of price strength just outside of US time, followed by increased selling once US traders come online.
The concern now is not the breakout itself, but whether the rally is supported by spot demand or increasingly reliant on leveraged futures.
Open interest rising along with the price does not automatically indicate trouble, but it does raise the stakes. If the move holds, leverage can amplify the upside. If momentum stops, crowded positioning leaves the market vulnerable to rapid pullbacks as long positions are liquidated.
The risk for bulls is that failure to hold $90,000 during US time could reinforce the market’s recent pattern of lower highs and rapid pullbacks.
Conversely, a sustained move above the level would mark a break from the opening selling behavior that has defined much of December.
