bitcoin It may have traded above $126,000 in October, but according to Alex Thorn, global head of research at Galaxy Digital, its real value (once inflation is taken into account) never crossed the six-figure mark.
“If you adjust the price of bitcoin for inflation using 2020 dollars, BTC never exceeded $100,000,” Thorn wrote in a post on X. “It actually peaked at $99,848 in 2020 dollar terms.”
Thorn points out the difference between nominal and real prices. The nominal price reflects what bitcoin cost at that time, in dollars of that year. The real price, on the other hand, is adjusted for inflation, giving a more accurate idea of the purchasing power of the asset compared to a constant year like 2020.
Why choose the beginning of 2020 as the beginning? Thorn said that was just before the Federal Reserve’s big print in response to Covid.
Possible conclusions
The data could provide food for both bulls and bears. Bulls might say that bitcoin’s rise from the 2022 lows is not as parabolic as previously thought. So, that could suggest a lot less froth at that nominal high of $126,000 in October and a lot more room for the bullish move to continue.
Bears, on the other hand, might say that bitcoin’s weaker, inflation-adjusted performance means the asset isn’t living up to its hype as a hedge against dollar printing. Stick with gold, you might add, although the yellow metal, which is on a hot streak right now, has had its own problems outpacing inflation in recent decades.
