By Francisco Rodrigues (All times Eastern Time unless otherwise noted)
Bitcoin is struggling to hold its ground as concerns over the strong yen and fiscal instability caused a divergence between cryptocurrencies and traditional safe haven assets.
Bitcoin fell 0.8% in 24 hours to below $88,000, and ether lost more than 1.6% to just under $2,900. The broader CoinDesk 20 index (CD20) fell 1.54%.
Meanwhile, the yen rose more than 1.4% against the dollar after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said Japan would “take all necessary measures to address speculative and highly abnormal movements.”
While Takaichi did not identify the worrying market moves, the country’s 10-year bond yields hit a 27-year high this month before experiencing a slight decline.
Traders are also interpreting a recent “rate check” by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York as a possible sign of coordinated action with Japan, a scenario that is steering investors away from riskier assets as the yen carry trade unravels.
Michael Burry, the investor who profited from the subprime mortgage crisis by shorting the market, that is, betting on a decline, recently noted that Japanese bond yields were closing the gap with global rates, commenting that “repatriation is pending.”
The suggestion is that almost $5 trillion of overseas investments, mainly in the United States, would be withdrawn to take advantage of these returns. As a result, capital has fled risk assets in anticipation of such a move. The Nikkei 225 index fell 1.8%, while Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures fell.
However, that capital has not shifted towards bitcoin, but towards gold. The precious metal surpassed $5,000 per ounce for the first time today and is already at $5,090. Bitcoin’s always-on nature, deep liquidity, and instant settlement may be holding it back, according to NYDIG global head of research Greg Cipolaro.
“In periods of stress and uncertainty, liquidity preference dominates, and this dynamic hurts bitcoin much more than gold,” he wrote in a note shared with CoinDesk.
Blockchain data also suggests internal weakness. CryptoQuant said in a report that older bitcoin holders are starting to sell at a loss for the first time since October 2023.
Traders will be keeping an eye on this week’s Federal Reserve meeting, where interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, although Chairman Jerome Powell’s guidance will be key.
Additionally, US government shutdown risks, currently pegged at 79% on Polymarket and close to 78% on Kalshi, add another layer of uncertainty ahead of a week in which major tech companies will report earnings and guide their stocks. Stay alert!
Read more: For an analysis of current activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to watch
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Macro
- January 26, 8:30 am: US monthly durable goods orders for November (previous -2.2%)
- January 26, 10:30 am: US Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index for January (previous -10.9)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
symbolic events
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- Maple Finance is voting on extending the protocol’s 25% revenue allocation to the Syrup Strategic Fund for the first half of 2026. Voting ends on January 26.
- Lido is voting to implement a dynamic DVT incentive model that adjusts reward splitting based on operating costs, as well as reforming the Shared Rewards Committee to support Lido V3 features like stVaults. Voting ends on January 26.
- Unlock
- January 26: to unlock 10.5% of its circulating supply worth $508.2 million.
- Token releases
- January 26: A snapshot will be taken of the Rainbow Air Launch (RBNW).
Conferences
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is down 1.5% as of 4 pm ET Friday to $87,928.03 (24 hours: -0.67%)
- ETH is down 1.5% to $2,897.28 (24 hours: -1.31%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 2.05% to 2,681.29 (24 hours: -1.34%%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 2 basis points to 3.05%
- BTC funding rate is 0.0051% (5.5856% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is down 0.92% at 97.46
- Gold futures rise 1.42% to $4,983.10
- Silver futures rise 7.15% to $103.26
- The Nikkei 225 closed down 1.79% to 52,885.25
- Hang Seng closed unchanged at 26,765.52
- FTSE unchanged at 10,143.44
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.13% to 5,948.20
- DJIA closed Friday down 0.58% at 49,098.71
- The S&P 500 closed unchanged at 6,915.61
- Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.28% at 23,501.24
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.43% at 33,144.98
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 1.5% at 3,591.57
- The 10-year US Treasury rate fell 2.8 basis points to 4.211%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures down 0.16% at 6,933.75
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures unchanged at 25,680.50
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average index futures down 0.76% to 49,180.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 59.79% (-0.13%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03294 (1.31%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 951 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $39.17
- Total fees: 1.93 BTC / $169,938
- CME Futures Open Interest: 124,740 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 17.2 oz.
- BTC market capitalization against gold: 5.87%
Technical analysis
- BTC faces stiff resistance after a weekly close below $88,000 and a rejection at the 50-week exponential moving average of $96,700
- Unless it recovers $88,000, the market will likely move into a consolidation range between $80,000 and $88,000 as short-term volatility prices in this local uncertainty before a broader breakout attempt.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Friday at $216.95 (-2.77%), -2.25% to $212.06 in premarket
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $71.33 (-0.03%), -2.29% at $69.70
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $31.90 (+3.17%), -2.51% to $31.10
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $35.75 (-2.00%), -0.73% to $35.49
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $10.50 (+2.04%), -2.10% to $10.28
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $17.28 (+1.17%), -1.79% to $16.97
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $18.79 (+3.93%), -1.33% to $18.54
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $13.71 (+3.94%), -2.26% to $13.40
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $49.14 (+4.71%), -1.59% at $48.36
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $14.99 (-4.83%)
Crypto treasury companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $163.11 (+1.32%), -2.33% at $159.31
- Strive (ASST): closed at $0.87 (+0.06%), -1.78% at $0.85
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $9.75 (-0.31%), -2.56% at $9.50
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $2.00 (+1.01%), -4.50% to $1.91
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.27 (-3.79%)
ETF Flows
BTC Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: -$103.5 million
- Accumulated net flows: $56.48 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: -$41.7 million
- Accumulated net flows: $12.33 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~6.02 million
Source: Farside Investors
while you were sleeping
As Europe’s dependence on American natural gas grows, so does Trump’s influence (The New York Times): The tension over Greenland raised concerns that the Trump administration could turn the US oil and gas industry into a way to pressure Europe.
Dollar Hits Four-Month Low as Gold Hits $5,000 (Bloomberg): The dollar extended its sell-off on Monday amid speculation that the United States could coordinate intervention with Japanese authorities to support the yen. Stocks retreated, while gold surpassed $5,000 an ounce.
India to cut tariffs on cars to 40% in trade deal with EU, sources say (Reuters): India plans to reduce tariffs on cars imported from the European Union to 40% from a high of 110%, in the biggest opening yet of the country’s market as the two sides move closer to a free trade pact that could come as soon as Tuesday.
