The race continues among analysts to predict how far Bitcoin will go could go down, and target prices go down further every day. The latest to step in is Stifel, a major full-service financial services firm based in St. Louis, Missouri.
Analysts at the 136-year-old company predict that the price of bitcoin could fall to $38,000.
“Already down -41% from the high, bitcoin bulls have followed a linear trend that suggests a potential low of ~$38,000,” the team led by Barry B. Bannister said in a note to clients on Wednesday.
They’re looking at the straight line drawn through the bottoms of every major bitcoin crash since 2010. Bitcoin plunged 93% in 2011, 84% in 2015, 83% in 2018, and 76% in 2022. A line connecting those market bottoms slopes up and points to $38,000 as the potential nadir of the current decline.
Bitcoin peaked above $126,000 in October and has since plummeted to nearly $70,000, returning to levels last seen in November 2024.
The curious case of Benjamin Bitcoin
Stifel analysts explained the bearish case with an analogy linked to the movie “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.”
In the film and the F. Scott Fiztgerald story on which it is based, Button becomes younger as everyone else ages. Bitcoin is like this: a fixed supply limit of 21 million BTC made it stronger (younger in analysts’ terms) as the dollar weakened due to regular money printing.
Now he is wasting away, like the child version of Button, who looks 10 years old but looks 80 and is left playing piano for retirees.
Bitcoin used to rise with more global cash and weaker dollars, but since 2025, the relationship has reversed. Now it falls with the dollar. The dollar index has fallen nearly 1% this year, extending last year’s nearly 10% decline.
“Prior to 2025, Bitcoin rose when the dollar fell and the global M2 money supply (converted to dollars) rose, so it ‘aged backwards’ against fiat currency, but since 2025 the relationship has reversed,” the analysts said.
The behavior is compounded by the fact that Bitcoin closely tracks Wall Street’s Nasdaq 100 index and growth stocks, rising on dovish moves from the Federal Reserve and falling on hawkish ones. Although the Federal Reserve cut interest rates at the last three meetings of 2025, they largely took an hawkish tone, downplaying faster cuts in the future.
That tone is ominous, analysts said, especially as technology companies are taking on more debt, which has raised their borrowing costs. This could lead to a financial squeeze, affect stock valuations, and add to the pain in the bitcoin market.
