Wall Street bank Citigroup is lowering expectations for Coinbase (COIN) amid risk-off sentiment gripping markets.
In a Friday note to clients, the bank’s analysts lowered their price target on the cryptocurrency exchange to $400 from $505, citing weaker trading volumes, weaker institutional activity and ongoing uncertainty over the timing of US cryptocurrency legislation.
The new price target of $400 still represents more than double COIN’s closing price last night of $146. The same team of analysts raised their COIN price target to $505 in July 2025, when the stock hit an all-time high near $450.
Shares rose 6% in premarket action on Friday, as crypto markets recover somewhat from Thursday’s decline that saw bitcoin fall as low as $60,000.
Despite the short-term reset, the company reiterated its buy/high risk rating, calling Coinbase a category leader and primary beneficiary of eventual crypto reform. Progress on CLARITY, Citi said, remains the key catalyst to revive the stock’s momentum.
The bank now expects Senate negotiations on the market structure bill to extend beyond 2026, even as preliminary work continues.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said his company had withdrawn support for a sweeping digital assets bill after finding provisions that could have harmed consumers and stifled competition.
The bill has repeatedly lost steam as banking and crypto lobbyists clash over the performance of stablecoins, while lawmakers from both parties remain deadlocked on several other provisions.
Pricing current cryptocurrency prices in the market, analysts led by Peter Christiansen lowered their near-term forecasts, cutting Coinbase’s Q4 2025 net income by about 10% to $1.69 billion, about 4% below consensus.
After factoring in a $2.3 billion market value decline in cryptocurrency holdings and Coinbase’s shareholding in Circle (CRCL), analysts are now forecasting a Q4 GAAP EPS loss of $2.64.
Coinbase will release Q4 and full-year 2025 financial results after the close on February 12.
Read more: Citi Says CLARITY Act Momentum Is Building, But Fight Against DeFi Could Halt Crypto Bill
